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Monday, June 11, 2007

B757 Values Continue To Creep Upwards

Values of the B757 continue to edge higher, buoyed by renewed demand and absence of either alternative lift and a direct successor.

The recovery of the B757 has been evident for the last 18 months. The type is now essentially being retained by the U.S. majors and even added to when possible. The expansion of international services with the B757 is particularly notable, with Continental using the aircraft on a number of transatlantic services. FedEx has a large-scale freighter fleet replacement plan that is seeing a number of aircraft being acquired for conversion, the latest two being two ex-US Airways examples. However, FedEx will be managing to acquire aircraft at a cash price that makes conversion economical. Secondary carriers are also seeking the B757 not least because of its still exceptional operating costs even in an era of high fuel prices and a heritage that now stretches back for 25 years. There are now only 12 examples being advertised for sale or lease out of a fleet of nearly a 1,000. A year ago, there were twice as many on the market. The addition of winglets provides the benefits in fuel saving that will allow the type to remain competitive in the short-to-medium term.

Values, having virtually collapsed post 2001, recovered. Aircraft that were attracting distressed pricing of less than $8 million are now valued at more than double. The rise in lease rentals, which saw B757-200ERs being leased for less than $100,000, have more than doubled over the last five years. Such a rise in rentals has allowed values to recover. Values and lease rentals may have peaked but demand is expected to remain strong. For shorter lease terms, the rates still have the potential to increase. While there is no direct replacement for the B757, age may become more of a factor and operators will be seeking alternatives.