As regionals lose pilots to major carrier hiring and change recruiting standards, the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) is targeting regional training as a safety issue, according to Captain John Prater, president of ALPA, recalling similar moves in past decades.
Compounding this are assertions by the National Transportation Safety Board calling into question regional training programs, just as it did in the two previous pilot shortage and training crises.
Three regional accidents were cited in a speech by National Transportation Safety Board Vice Chairman Robert Sumwalt who indicated a worrisome pattern that regional pilots may not be keeping their eye on the ball. Sumwalt stressed the importance of adhering to standard operating procedures adding FAA Line Operation Safety Audit findings, indicated a crew which doesn’t follow standard operating procedures is three times as likely to make mistakes. Related Story  Interestingly, during its recent runway safety forum, NTSB questioned Regional Airline Association Vice President-Technical Services Dave Lotterer on pilot training. At first blush, it seemed NTSB was flogging a dead issue but given recent NTSB statements and ALPA’s push, it now seems to be something regionals must address. Related Story
Regionals face not only above-average attrition rates but reduced availability of highly qualified pilots. Indeed, while major regionals such as SkyWest and Republic have not changed their pilot requirements, other regionals have to the point, said Aviation Information Resources Inc (AIR) and ALPA, some regionals are requiring only the minimal time required for a pilot’s license.
According to the Air Transport Professionals website, a training and job-clearinghouse service, regionals have nearly 1,800 pilot positions open. Meanwhile, WillFlyforFood.cc, created in 1998 as another job clearinghouse, allows candidates to check individual airline pay rates. It also offers forums to trade interview tips.
AIR President Kit Darby indicated the task of finding pilots is harder for regionals. He predicted majors will hire 2,700 pilots this year while nationals – many of which are actually large regionals – will take 6,626, jet regionals 665 and non-jet regionals 1,274. As of September, AIR, Inc. was forecasting approximately 12,000 new airline pilot jobs for 2007. More than 1,360 pilots received jobs within the airline industry in September making it the largest hiring month since 9/11. It also brings the third quarter to an end with hiring numbers totaling 3,619, almost doubling the numbers from the third quarter last year (1,918). The National carriers hired 729 pilots, the largest hiring month for this sector since 9/11. The Major airlines hired 295 pilots, followed by the Non-Jet operators with 106. Out of 90,970 active airline pilots 3,472 were still on furlough at the end of September, a slight decrease from the 3,543 furloughed pilots in August.
“Many large regionals are coming up short 10 to 30 pilots a month and have been doing that for as much as six months,” said Darby. “I believe that we are already seeing these airlines start to adjust their schedules. This may be a self-adjusting problem as growth is reduced with the lack of pilots. A smaller airline will have to fund initial flight training soon or risk not having the pilots they need in the coming years. This has not happened since the early-to-mid 60s when a few of our major airlines helped pilots obtain their basic licenses and then hired them.”
It has, however, happened with regionals before – in the mid-1980s, the last time regional pilot training issues became a safety issue. It rose in importance again in the mid-1990s and was addressed as part of the single-level-of-safety rule imposed in 1997. In the 1980s, regionals paid for training in exchange for a certain number of years of service. However, this was impossible to enforce as majors began a wholesale recruitment of regional pilots.
“Airline profits in the US will lead to record hiring at every level,” said Darby. “The increased cost will have to be passed to the major airline and eventually the passenger. With this in mind the major airlines may decide to participate in the hiring and training at the smaller airlines or just do it themselves to meet their own needs.”
Regionals are not only reducing flight experience minima, which, said Darby, raises the failure rate, but giving employee and pilot bonuses for new pilots, advertising, attending job fairs, traveling directly to schools, setting up tailored training programs with third-party schools to ease the transition to their training programs, and adding to their own training programs to ensure the success of less experienced pilots, according to AIR, Inc. Pilots will be sourced from graduates of universities and flight schools, as well as flight instructors from throughout the training industry, something that has already occurred.
“Formal education and professional school output is small,” he said, adding the military is a fixed limited supply as well especially now with the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq virtually shutting down that pipeline. “Many will have to follow the conventional route of funding their own college and flight training.
“Additional pilot demand from corporate/fractional operators, VLJ operators, foreign airlines and crew leasing companies, plus pilot retirements are at a peak these next few years,” he continued. “Majors may need over 5,000 pilots per year in the short term to meet the demands of growth and retirements. Total demand may exceed 20,000 per year.” He also said the number increases to a projected need for 50,000 pilots for majors alone between now and 2019 which will be had only by raiding each other’s pilot corps, signing bonuses which do nothing to increase the number of pilots but only serve to aid poaching.
Darby also cited the lack of military pilots and agreed with Prater that changes in pay at airlines impacted the desirability of an airline carrier especially when new hires earn so little they cannot pay off education or training loans. He also pointed out that the military pilot career is now more competitive on pay and benefits. This is especially so given the changes in pay and work rules at airlines which have impacted the desirability of an airline carrier especially when regional new hires earn so little they cannot pay off education or training loans, said Darby.
He added that just as domestic recruiting is rising, so, too, is recruitment for foreign operations, noting that foreign entities are doing a pretty good job at luring pilots overseas. Indeed, it is these foreign operators that are making the greatest impact on the pilot shortage, according to industry reports, and Mesa is in the thick of recruiting for its new joint venture with Shenzhen Airlines which hopes to launch shortly. Indeed, Mesa is offering a $5,000 signing bonus for pilots who will fly its fledgling carrier KunPeng, a partnership it is launching with Shenzhen Airlines in China.
The organization is looking for pilots with 500 hours pilot-in-command on the CRJ series with 3,000 hours total time. The recruitment material on its web site saying service will launch with 20 Bombardier CRJs flying from Beijing to 16 regional airports. It expects to hire four captains this year and another 60 in 2008. “Pilots are guaranteed $5700 per month (net) for 80 hours of work, well above the $2,230 average gross income for other top-level professionals in the city which is before tax and housing costs,” said Mesa’s website. The $1200 per month housing allowance is triple the $302 per month average housing costs. The web site even offers a view of a typical apartment near the airport. “The approximate equivalent salary in the U.S. taking into account tax free status, housing, and cash benefits would be around $130,000USD/year,” said the material. “Your out of pocket living expenses will be only for food and entertainment.”
Shenzhen recently opened Kunpeng International Flight School to address the Chinese pilot shortage, estimated at 2,000 for just the next two years. CAAC has approved 17 of the 39 new airline application submitted since 2004.
Darby said some airlines have already reduced minima to 250 hours and 25 hours of multi-engine – the minimum hours needed to get the license. However, he pointed out lowing minima, raises the failure rate. Even so, a quick review of the recruitment listing in AIR, Inc’s monthly magazine shows that while regionals have lowered their requirements, none listed were at the 250 level but there was recruiting at the 400-1,000-hour level.
ALPA’s Prater also picked up on the lowered minima, charging that regionals are jeopardizing safety with the speed at which they move new hires to the left seat. “Recently the hiring standards have been reduced to the FAR minimums,” said Prater, calling for different training programs to be developed for different levels of skill because many of these pilots become captains of 50-, 70-, or 90-passenger jets in little more than a year. “Now those same express carriers are paying for training costs, offering signing bonuses, and lowering the amount of logged hours required to lure in new pilots. The rush to push pilots through training and into the cockpits raises obvious safety concerns. New pilots today are going straight into the right seat, and moving into the left seat in a hurry. And they’re doing it in airplanes that are great machines, but can be unforgiving. Furthermore, under the current training programs, these pilots receive the same training as a pilot coming into the system who has thousands of flight hours.”
This experience is a far cry from 2003 when regional were virtually the only airlines hiring. Recruiting at national/regionals (with sales between $100 million and $1 billion and includes the 10 largest regionals, some mid-size cargo carriers and five of the low-cost carriers), include Air Wisconsin, American Eagle, Atlantic Southeast, Comair, Express Jet, Horizon, Mesa, Mesaba, Midwest, Pinnacle, Republic, SkyWest, Trans States, Piedmont, and PSA. Northwest’s new subsidiary, Compass, is also recruiting. The non-jet operators recruiting included Big Sky, Cape Air, Chalks Ocean Airways, Colgan Air, CommutAir, Corporate Air, Great Lakes, Gulfstream, Island Air, Island Express, New England Airlines, Pacific Wings, RegionsAir, Scenic Airlines, Skyway Enterprises, and Wiggins Air.
All this means regionals continue to suffer from the loss of pilots as the major carriers recall all furloughed pilots and make plans to hire more. He also said the number increases to a projected need for 50,000 pilots for majors alone between now and 2019 which will be accomplished only by raiding each other’s pilot corps and signing bonuses which do nothing to increase the number of pilots.
US Airways was the latest to announce plans to hire more than 350 new pilots in addition to moving 140 pilots, furloughed from mainline service under the jets-for-jobs program and now flying in its Express operations, back to mainline service. The carrier said retirements were driving the need for more pilots, adding the new hires will move into the airline’s Embraer 190 fleet. Northwest had more than 1,400 pilots respond to its July recruitment that resulted in more than 1,000 applications.
Prater indicated that, with changes in benefits and work rules, airlines are less able to attract pilots. “According to research done by the Wilson Center, the new generation entered the aviation industry because it was attractive,” he said. “They thought they would be entering an industry where you got paid well to travel the globe; where you got good benefits, from health care to retirement, and a convenient work schedule with lots of days off — time you could use for traveling more, or continuing an education, or even working at another part-time job. But as they entered the ranks of express carriers, they found their own version of the ‘Real World.’ They paid $100,000 for flight school training and a four-year college degree – only $75,000 – to make less than $20,000 as starting pay. They did so with the belief that they would pay their dues making burger-flipper wages for a little while, but eventually they would be compensated for that sacrifice with a much higher salary. And, at the end of the day, the airline job simply has not lived up to the ‘dream job’ standards that this generation expected.
“Unlike the older pilots who entered the aviation industry because of their love to fly,” he continued, “these younger pilots entered the aviation industry with hopes for a solid, successful career. Many of them hold degrees in something other than aviation and are not reluctant to vote with their feet. When their dream career choice doesn’t live up to their standards, and other sectors of the economy offer better compensation, benefits, and career advancement, I can safely predict that many young pilots will be tempted to leave this industry—or worse yet, never entertain the idea of entering it.
The average annual major carrier salary for a first officer in his fifth year in 2004 was $95,000, but that fell to $87,000 in 2004 and eroded to $83,000 in 2007, according to AIR Inc. Darby pointed to the new ICAO Multi-Crew Pilots License (MPL) which is designed to deliver new jet copilots in about a year for about $125,000. The training is adapted from military type training which he calls “very efficient but expensive.” However, the MPS has not been embraced by the FAA even as it is being tested around the world. In addition, the airlines would be expected to pick up the tab. This could be contingent on minimum service requirements in order to pay back the training investment. Even so, it will, he said, cost the airlines millions over many years and investments made by regionals will likely be lost as they were in the 1980s.
The devastating airline economic aftermath of 9/11 not only forced 8,000 pilots into furlough but it caused a sea change in pilot hiring, according to Captain Prater. Those who have not been flying, would require the same training as a new hire, said Darby.
“When pilots got laid off in the 1970s, they came back when called,” said Prater of industry changes since 9/11. “When pilots got laid off in the 1980s, they came back when called. But when bankruptcy-laden airlines tried to recall pilots in 2006 and 2007, many had moved on. In fact, at one major airline, for every seven pilots it tried to call back from furlough, only one returned to fly the line. Industry wide, about one-third of today’s furloughed pilots will return to their airline. Some have left the industry altogether while others were lured away by other airlines, like Fed Ex, which offered better pay and job security. A few even left North America to try their luck at an enticing and growing aviation industry, with benefits, in the Persian Gulf and elsewhere. Further poaching is expected as Asian markets like China and India flourish.
Retirement rate at majors will be 8.2 percent this year, according to AIR, Inc., but will rise to a fifth of all major pilots by 2010 and staying above 27 percent through 2013 and reach 41.3 percent by 2015. All this means an annual retirement of between 2100 and 2500 pilots rising to 2,700 in 2015, when 23,252 pilots will have retired between 2007 and 2015.
But efforts to extend the pilot retirement age will have only a short-term impact, according to Darby. AIR, Inc. statistics show that only 1,500 pilots would remain in the 2007 if the rule were to change, diminishing to just over 1,200 the following year and just over 700 the year after that. By 2010, the number of additional pilots would be about 400, after which the impact of the rule change will disappear. Related Story
The Senior Pilots Coalition is calling on FAA to raise the Age 60 retirement schedule to alleviate “the current U.S. airline pilot shortage and minimize inconvenient and even dangerous airline delays” It claims a membership pool of 250 pilots, illustrating the limited impact such pilots will have. The group is seeking in D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals, D.C. Circuit to force the FAA to reconsider the agency's decision not to grant waivers to a group of pilots who were arbitrarily forced to stop flying at the age of 60. “The FAA claims to be working toward the desired rule change, but has yet to begin the rule-change procedure or even just announce the date for the beginning of that process.” Related Story
Commercial pilot license issuance has dropped almost six percent from 1999 to 2006. The lack of pilots is so acute that the Regional Air Cargo Carriers Association (RACCA) is currently working with FAA to get approval for inexperienced pilots to log time in the right seat while flying with experienced pilots in Part 135 single-pilot operations. RACCA's technical and safety staffs are convinced that allowing them to accumulate time in this manner is far superior to single-pilot operations that have nothing to do with the business of regional air cargo.