Despite the fact that regional jets are responsible for much of mainline economic recovery, majors have collectively thrown their regional partners under a bus, according to Regional Airline Association President Roger Cohen, as regional aircraft come under increasing attack with proposed jet restrictions and because of consumer problems; major sources of concern at last week’s RAA meeting.
Regional execs were bemoaning the fact that, three years ago, RJs were hailed as the hero of airline economic recovery with the wholesale shedding of marginal mainline routes. But they have not been seen as a success by regulators who grouse about too many small jets clogging the system. Of course that is nonsense but there is no explaining it to the public – or even regulators. The Department of Transportation is considering a wide range of congestion-relieving options including peak/congestion pricing, auctions and RJ restrictions. But, according to Cohen, there is almost unanimous agreement within the Aviation Rulemaking Committee tasked with addressing congestion issues surrounding New York opposing all these proposals. In addition, there is a question as to whether DOT has the authority to impose them. The ARC's recommendation are due out next week.
While manufacturers said it may be time to start pushing back on RJ attacks, that is easier said than done because no one really wants to touch these issues with a 20-foot pole. There are too many competing interests. Regionals would have to mount a highly complex public information campaign explaining airline economics that would make the disclaimers at the end of pharmaceutical commercials sound like the Dick and Jane stories of our youth.
Nor should we waste the time or money, for this too shall pass. The last time the industry faced such a public perception problem was with turboprops. Despite the fact they were more state of the art than the Concorde, the public didn’t buy it. Numerous efforts to educate the public on turboprops were developed by airlines and manufacturers, all to no avail. Ultimately, passengers, while they might have groused about vibrations and noise, accepted them because that was the only way to get there from here short of racking up a lot of windshield time.
I think the grousing had less to do with turboprops than about the loss of the big jet and point-to-point service out of their local city. You’ve got to admit, regional aircraft, largely Cessna 402s, Shorts 330s, Piper Navajos and Fairchild Metroliners, replacement of mainline jets was a huge come down for most passengers. And the new generation of turboprops -- the Saab 340, ATR 42 and Embraer Brasilia -- did little to assuage consumer suspicions about the aircraft. In addition, hubbing is not exactly convenient. Despite this, both are economically necessary. It was either that or no service at all and it has been the natural evolution of the airline industry since its inception. The problem with turboprops solved itself with the advent of regional jets.
Regionals are already upgauging because their markets have outgrown 50 seaters. The average size of aircraft is increasing as is the average stage length even as airlines have gained scope relief. This trend will continue with increasing fuel costs, according to the manufacturer’s panel on retaining RJ access to the system which included Bombardier Vice President of Marketing Barry McKinnon, Embraer’s Managing Director for Asia and Pacific Bruce Peddle and GECAS Vice President Todd Freeman. They noted that smaller RJs are already out of production for the most part and their retirements are not too far out. And, should the economic downturn come to pass as a result of high fuel prices and the mortgage financing crisis, demand will slacken and congestion will go away just as it has in the past with the downturns in the late ‘80s and ‘90s.
Perhaps Pinnacle CEO Phil Trenary, who moderated the panel – which had few suggestions as to how to solve the problem, said it best when he noted that it is not the scheduling of regional jets that is the problem it is the competitive pressure to put 50 flights a day between New York and a single point in Florida. He also said the solution was easily solved by replacing regional jets with a handful of A380s. “It would mean a lot of stops but no one wants to do that,” he said. “We have to get away from a dialogue on short-term fixes and fundamentally address the long-term physical issues.”
But it is unlikely that this volley will be launched given the actions of regional airlines on consumer and other issues. Any attempt at pushing back would die as such arguments teeter on criticizing mainline partners' policies on delays and scheduling. While they are grateful when a reporter recognizes they are not responsible for overbooking and scheduling, they do not push the subject. Instead, they hide behind language indicating that the major assigns the scheduling, ostensibly in close cooperation with the regional, and it is the regional’s responsibility to manufacturer the seats to meet the schedule. For their part, major carriers don’t want to touch the issue because it would mean taking responsibility for their over-scheduling and delay problems.
But it should be noted that all this is a smokescreen for the collective failure of industry and government to provide for more system capacity. While everyone agrees we need a new system, the industry is so fractured as to how to pay for it, reauthorization has been shelved for this year and will be embroiled in the election year in 2008. ABC World News Aviation Correspondent Lisa Stark told the assembled regional operators the rhetoric is flying so fast, so thick and is so extreme as to make it impossible to cover since much of what is said is full of both half and untruths.
Regionals plaintively asked the press panel which consisted of Stark, Washington Post Aviation Editor Del Wilbur and USA Today Safety Specialist Alan Levine, how regionals could get their message across, Stark had little advice except to default to developing relationships with the press.
Short of giving the public a complex lesson in airline economics, it is not going to happen. While it may not be the proverbial third rail, it comes close.
Nor do such efforts lend themselves to coverage because passengers simply don’t care. They only care about their own flight and whether or not it will get there on time. They see solving flight problems as someone else’s job and know that government and industry are failing miserably.
Regulators, while blithely blaming regional jets, already understand the complex economic reasons for the regional jets. Here, again, they don’t care because otherwise they would have to focus on major carrier scheduling practices, something they have always been loathe to do, or, worse, their own failures to accommodate system demand, again. After all, it happens about the middle of every decade. Then things calm down as the economic storm wanes with a downturn and makes the problem disappear along with the political will to actually modernize the system to accommodate the next surge.
But modernization is only half the problem; the other half being the available concrete and the difficulty in expanding airports. There have only been 10 runways built in the last seven years. GECAS’s Todd Freeman indicated that his company is looking at expanding its business to investing in infrastructure that surrounds its core aircraft business. It is exploring creating airport financing because, after all, the more capacity, the more aircraft placements.
Be that as it may, until the regional airlines gain the backbone needed to criticize their major partners nothing will happen. In the meantime, majors can hide behind the FAA’s concern over the number of regional jets, as well as the DOT’s lack of clarity on why regional operator consumer statistics are so poor.

No Rule on DOT Statistics Imminent
Saying that a rule requiring a clearer picture of who is responsible for flight problems reported in the Bureau of Transportation Statistics Air Travel Consumer Report is more than a year away, Norman Strickman, director of the DOT's Aviation Consumer Protection Division, noted the largest carriers are still talking of changing the way statistics are reported, nothing has happened. He did say that discussions focus on only giving consumers more information but little that could impact their travel decisions.
Speaking at the fall RAA meeting, Strickman admitted that it is the mainline carriers making the decisions for regionals, but said any new information would only tell consumers a list of regional partners that could be impacted by a major’s problems. He reported that Congress is really focused on consumer issues such as runway delays and the desire for more, not less, information. So far, it seems as if regionals would continue to be listed separately without an explanation of why their statistics seem to be bad. Congress is also asking the DOT to look at requirements of tagging chronically delayed flights with a flashing red light at the time of booking. That would impact regionals since their flights are usually listed as the top five in chronically delayed flights.
Comair President Don Bornhorst, who soon heads to a new post running the Delta Connection program, in questioning whether or not the consumer statistics are really useful, indicated the media is doing a wonderful job of reporting carrier performance, so much so that consumers now know about problem flights down to the flight number and city pairs. However, while they may not be useful for consumers, without the ATCR, reporters would have nothing to write about.
RAA President Roger Cohen said he thought the historical information provided by the DOT is doing passengers a disservice since it does not predict what will happen on a given flight. “The only flight they care about is their own,” he said. “Is my flight going to take off and get there on time? That’s what they want to know.” But, the statistics, which are two months out of date by the time they are published, do pinpoint chronically delayed flights. Cohen is right, however, since the lack of real-time information often lists flights that could have been delayed by summer thunderstorms which would have little to do with winter flights.
Strickman also said the recently proposed denied boarding rule is more than six months out. Related Story
Clearly, the government and industry are not going to help the regionals. So, they must stand up for themselves and tell it like it is. Unfortunately, they are not very good at calling a spade a spade.