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Monday, March 13, 2006

Can VLJs Overcome Alleged Safety Issues?

While many are predicting that very light jets (VLJs) will revolutionize corporate travel and air taxi services once they are certified and come onto the market, others are raising concerns about their impact on congestion in the skies and are questioning how safe these new aircraft will be.

Before the first very light jet has even been certified, VLJ manufacturers are responding to concerns expressed by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the Air Transport Association (ATA) over the safety of VLJs. The manufacturers believe the concerns are overblown.

"How can you talk about safety issues when none of these planes is flying?" a spokesman for Eclipse Aviation Corp. in Albuquerque, N.M, asks.

Adam Blakely, speaking for another VLJ manufacturer, Adam Aircraft in Englewood, Colo., doesn't believe the new planes raise any particular safety issues, especially in comparison to the business jets that are already out there.

Yet, the National Business Aviation Association (NBAA), which says it represents more than 7,000 firms that own or operate general aviation craft, says, "The manufacturers of VLJs have started to look at the unique risks that exist for their products" dealing with such issues as wake turbulence and convective weather conditions.

Vern Raburn, president and CEO of Eclipse says that most of the safety concerns are unfounded. "A lot of definitive statements are being made with no correlation to fact. A huge number of people, [particularly in] the air transport world, are prepared to make up their own facts," he adds.

In Raburn's view, Eclipse has already spent a "huge amount of time anticipating how to operate [VLJs] safely." This has been achieved principally in the VLJs' design. The new planes' navigational and avionics capabilities give pilots situational awareness that is at least comparable to, or surpasses that of, most transport airplanes that are flying today. Moreover, the entire management of the aircraft is electronic. Additionally, Eclipse has already put in far more flight test hours -- about 1,350 -- on its VLJs than the 800 hours Airbus reportedly has accumulated in testing the A380.

But the FAA has been quietly working on certain aspects of VLJ safety. The agency wants to make sure that air traffic control (ATC) will not be overwhelmed by the predicted large number of VLJs that will be flying, that controllers and would-be VLJ pilots receive the necessary training, and that there are definitive conditions established under which these aircraft would be permitted single-pilot operations.

Much of the increase in the hours flown by the turboprop/turbojet fleet over the next decade will be attributable to VLJs, the FAA said Feb. 28 in its annual forecast of aviation trends. Specifically, that increase will be from 5 million hours in 2005 to 11.9 million in 2017, an average annual growth rate of 7.5 percent.

ATA, especially, has already raised a host of safety issues with VLJs, particularly in relation to how the planes might congest the nation's airways when they start going into service later this year for private corporate travel, or for charter or air taxi services.

Basil J. Barimo, ATA's vice president of operations and safety, warned the House Aviation Subcommittee late last year that the safety implications of these aircraft is something that the FAA will have to pay close attention to. He also posed to lawmakers a series of VLJ safety questions that he had no ready answers for, such as whether maintenance standards for privately owned aircraft are also appropriate for VLJs, and whether smaller, regional airports can handle any safety incidents.

But legislators have yet to respond to such concerns, at least publicly. There are no bills in the current congressional session that mention VLJs. Nor have any lawmakers made any statements of concern about VLJs.

Talking to Regional Aviation News, ATA's Barimo says the group's safety concerns with VLJs fall into two main areas. One involves congestion of the national airspace, stemming from the possibility that 4,500 VLJs could be added to the skies in the coming decade. Unless something significant is done to change how the airspace is managed, then there might have to be limits on flights, he adds.

So far, ATA's main bone of contention with VLJs seems to be on a related issue -- that new aircraft will use airspace without their operators paying their fair, proportionate fee to support the ATC system.

Worries about VLJs quickly clogging up the U.S. airspace are quite premature, Adam Aircraft's Blakely asserts. Selling a "few thousand planes" over the next 10 to 15 years, as Adam and its competitors hope to do, isn't like someone's going to "flip a switch" and suddenly thousands of VLJs appear in the air.

Plus, there's an aging aircraft issue, Blakely tells Regional Aviation News. Many of the pre-orders are from owners and operators who intend to replace legacy aircraft. Finally, it's likely that business owners and other aircraft operators will gravitate toward smaller regional airports and avoid major hubs.

"Even if the most optimistic predictions about VLJs turn out to be true, we will not see large numbers entering the system over the next five years. That means we have time to see how this market truly develops," Cessna CEO Jack Pelton said recently in a Washington speech.

For its part, the FAA also expects that VLJ operators will prefer smaller airports, if only because of convenience and the aircraft's performance capabilities.

On the other hand, corporate America will still be interested in flying to where the money is, ATA's Barimo points out. That means using the major urban airports in places such as New York and Florida, and not rural airfields.

Another issue that concerns the ATA is how well VLJ pilots will be prepared to fly their planes. Some of these would-be pilots who have already ordered these jets also will be learning how to fly in them, Barimo says. Many other pilots will be moving over from turboprops to VLJs, which like transport airplanes, are high-performance aircraft.

Moreover, it'll be challenging or next to impossible to instill into new pilots during their training the equivalent of the "seasoned judgement" that more experienced pilots have. "We're not saying they're unsafe, but we're falling back on a risk-averse attitude," Barimo says.

Pilot training, in fact, is an issue that seems to be near the top of everyone's list of concerns. The FAA says it is partnering with manufacturers, insurance firms and industry associations to develop "rigorous training programs." Echoing the thoughts of many in the industry, the agency recognizes that while these aircraft are not especially complex to fly, the higher-altitude airspace these jets will share with larger craft will make operations fairly complex, the FAA's plan for Reduced Vertical Separation Minimum (RVSM) from 2,000 ft. to 1,000 ft. between flight level (FL) 290-410 notwithstanding. Therefore, a good portion of the training and pilot testing will cover scenarios involving these more complex situations.

But largely because most pilot training has not been oriented toward standard operating procedures and has not used data from prior training to improve future training, Eclipse long ago decided to take matters into its own hands. The firm partnered with United Airlines [UAUA] to have all of its future VLJ pilots attend classes at the latter's training center in Denver, Raburn tells Regional Aviation News.

Another safety issue with VLJs is whether there should be one or two pilots operating the aircraft. While some of these planes are being type certificated for single-pilot operation, "there is a policy question as to whether two pilots should be required for Part 135 operations," an FAA spokesman tells Regional Aviation News. Under current regulations, they could carry passengers with a single pilot and an autopilot. The agency's 125/135 Aviation Rulemaking Committee also examined this issue and recommended that an operator have six months of experience before requesting single-pilot operations. Also, each would-be VLJ single pilot in command (PIC) would first need to have six months PIC flying experience as part of a two-pilot crew, and complete single-pilot training and testing.

Thus, FAA still is reviewing what it will do. Several operators who intend to carry passengers on these aircraft have said they plan to rely on two-pilot operations. It is also possible that the insurance industry will require two-pilot operations for certain types of flights, which could eat into the profit potential of the air taxi and charter businesses.

Adam Aircraft's Blakely says, "it's plausible that safety and insurance considerations will induce part 135 operators to go to two pilots." But for most operators, he doubts there will be much of an issue, especially with today's "glass panel" avionics providing pilots greater situational awareness.

But another consideration is that the VLJ co-pilot seat is seen as the "money seat" by many in the fledgling industry. With the typical craft only carrying up to six passengers, having one less seat occupied by an extra crew member and being able to sell another fare may make all the difference in profitability.

Finally, Eclipse's Raburn says each of his aircraft will be transmitting 10 megabytes of data hourly via satellite datalink, including "classic flight data recorder information" and the current performance health of all aircraft systems.

>>Contacts: Shelly Simi, Adam Aircraft, (301) 261-9601, shelly.simi@adamaircraft.com; Eclipse sales department, (877) 375-7978, sales@eclipseaviation.com; ATA, (202) 626-4000<<