Embraer Releases Commercial Aviation Forecast for the Asia-Pacific Region and China

SAO JOSE DOS CAMPOS, Brazil, Feb. 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Embraer has released its projections for commercial air traffic demand in the Asia-Pacific region and China over the next 20 years (2008-2027) during the Singapore Airshow 2008 (February 19-24). Asia-Pacific will grow at an annual rate of 5.3 percent and, particularly, China at 7.5 percent, which are well above the projected world average of 4.9 percent. This is based on a positive economic environment and more accessibility to the market by new carriers.

"Embraer's production, training and service investments show its deep involvement in the Asia-Pacific region, where the Company has three decades of experience," said Orlando Jose Ferreira Neto, Managing Director - Embraer Asia-Pacific. "The burgeoning and highly competitive aviation markets of the region pose a challenge that we take very seriously and sharpens the focus of our strategic planning."

Increasing openness in some countries of the region encourages more airline expansion and start-ups, which are resulting in stronger air transportation growth. However, the Asian fleet still concentrates on high- capacity narrowbody aircraft, preventing the implementation of adequate air transportation services to medium-sized cities. Embraer expects that this fact, in conjunction with an ever-growing need to integrate secondary cities, plus new public policies, will motivate the development of regional transportation, thus creating major opportunities for regional aviation in the coming years.

In China, the economy is growing at a fast pace and, together with the heavy infrastructure investments, is stimulating the creation of privately- owned airlines, resulting in greater competition. But the fleets are centered, mainly, on high-capacity aircraft, which are unable to efficiently serve most medium-demand secondary markets.

    Embraer foresees a demand for 1,270 jets in the 30 to 120-seat segment,
over the next 20 years, in the Asia-Pacific region and China, or an estimated
total market value of US$ 42 billion. The forecast, broken down into ten-year
periods, shows the delivery of 610 aircraft in 2008-2017 and 660 in 2018-2027,
as shown below.

    Market Segment (Seats)    2008-2017    2018-2027    2008-2027
    30-60                        100           80          180
    61-90                        160          180          340
    91-120                       350          400          750
    30-120                       610          660        1,270 jets

Embraer's current forecast indicates that the aircraft demand in the region will be 25 percent higher than the previous estimates. The Asia-Pacific region and China will represent 17 percent of worldwide aircraft deliveries over the next 20 years.

The studies indicate that the 30 to 90-seat segment will be the mainstay of regional aviation development in Asia. The 91 to 120-seat segment will support airlines to right-size aircraft capacity to market demand with improved service levels on low load factor narrowbody flights and to expand into mid-sized markets.

The carbon emissions issue is becoming one of the main drivers of airline fleet decisions and early retirement of older aircraft. Around 50 percent of the 61 to 120-seat jets currently in service in the Asia-Pacific region are over 20 years old and should be replaced in the near future, resulting in substantial environmental and economic benefits.

In light of the data of the 20-year outlook, Embraer's commercial aircraft families -- the ERJ 145 (with four models, ranging from 37 to 50 seats) and the E-Jets (four models, from 70 to 122 seats) -- are very well positioned to capture an important share of the present and future air transportation needs in the Asia-Pacific region and China. Based on its forecasted strong growth for the region, Embraer is implementing expansion plans for ensuring the continuous high-quality customer support and airline satisfaction that has permeated the history of the Company in this part of the world.

This document may contain projections, statements and estimates regarding circumstances or events yet to take place. Those projections and estimates are based largely on current expectations, forecasts on future events and financial tendencies that affect Embraer's businesses. Those estimates are subject to risks, uncertainties and suppositions that include, among others: general economic, political and trade conditions in Brazil and in those markets where Embraer does business; expectations on industry trends; the Company's investment plans; its capacity to develop and deliver products on the dates previously agreed upon, and existing and future governmental regulations. The words "believe," "may," "is able," "will be able," "intend," "continue," "anticipate," "expect" and other similar terms are supposed to identify potentialities. Embraer does not feel compelled to publish updates nor to revise any estimates due to new information, future events or any other facts. In view of the inherent risks and uncertainties, such estimates, events and circumstances may not take place. The actual results can therefore differ substantially from those previously published as Embraer expectations.