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Monday, December 15, 2003

Retrofit of B777-300ER Weight Upgrade Avoids Residual Decline

The intended substantive increase in the maximum take-off weight (MTOW) of the B777-300ER from late 2004 needs to be quickly retrofitted to the initial batch of aircraft to avoid any differentiation in values. The increase in the MTOW of the B777-300ER, slated for service entry in early next year, is...

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The intended substantive increase in the maximum take-off weight (MTOW) of the B777-300ER from late 2004 needs to be quickly retrofitted to the initial batch of aircraft to avoid any differentiation in values.

The increase in the MTOW of the B777-300ER, slated for service entry in early next year, is significant, representing an important shift in payload/range capability. The MTOW sees an increase to 775,000lbs from 760,000lbs. The range is increased to 7,700 nautical miles, which compares with the 7,500 nautical miles of the initial version. The increase in the MTOW is the result of flight testing, which demonstrated better than expected performance. To achieve the higher MTOW, only modest changes to the landing gear are necessary. The range of the B777-300ER now virtually matches the range capability of the B777-200ER, an important consideration for operators seeking fleet flexibility.

The increase in the range of the B777-300ER is also a response to the higher MTOW to be introduced on the A340-600 beginning in 2006. The increase in MTOW of the A340-600, a result of a number of pressures, has been an important factor in securing additional orders for the aircraft. Emirates has just added additional A340-600s to its existing order book. Airbus now offers a MTOW of 829,000lbs on its A340-600, a rise of some 21,000lbs compared to the existing MTOW of the A340-600. The values of the 805,000lb A340-600s have since been discounted, rather than the higher weight example attracting a premium. The MTOW of the A380 is already set to rise to compensate for higher than expected operating weights. The MTOW of the leviathan is likely to see a 20,000 pound rise prior to service entry, perhaps to experience incremental increases after that.

The changes to the B777-300ER landing gear are to be made available for aircraft to be produced before the new weight becomes standard. However, whether the upgrade will be automatic, whether existing customers will have to pay for the increase in weight, and how long customers will have to wait for the upgrade is not yet known. At the existing MTOW, the aircraft meets performance guarantees and a weight increase may thereby justify a price rise. Customers have traditionally been used to having to pay for a higher MTOW. The 7,500lbs difference in B777-300ER weight could translate into an additional $1.5 million. For values of the initial variants to avoid a discount, the modification will have to be prompt, automatic and cost free.

The payload/range capability of aircraft in this sector is vital as it determines whether important revenue generating cargo can be carried. At the more extreme ranges, it will determine whether a full passenger load can be carried. Operators are continually seeking to use aircraft on new routes and operational flexibility is essential. A slightly greater range compared to the competition may also determine whether a flight can be undertaken in both directions as prevailing winds will require more fuel to be carried.

The seemingly minute differences in payload/range of the aircraft can therefore determine whether an order is won or lost. Singapore Airlines has traditionally sought extremely tight payload/range requirements from manufacturers. Having ordered the MD11, the order was cancelled in favor of the A340-300. Now the A340-300 has been superceded by the B777-200ER. The imminent arrival of the A340-500 on the Singapore-New York route will stretch the performance of the type to the limit and will determine whether the airline retains the aircraft or opts for the B777-200LR.


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