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Freighter Current Values US$ millions - February 2004
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Aircraft
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Rt
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Age
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Value
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Trend Analysis
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A300F4-200
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C-
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1976-79
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7.5-9.0
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The A300F4-200 retains considerable merit in being able to offer capacity and low capital cost. While the almost constant level of availability may be galling for owners, there appears to be a steady stream of new operators willing to acquire the aircraft. Unfortunately, most operators prefer leasing to acquisition, so a packaged sale provides the greater prospect of success. |
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A300F4-200
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C-
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1980-84
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9.1-10.4
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The A300F4-200 retains considerable merit in being able to offer capacity and low capital cost. While the almost constant level of availability may be galling for owners, there appears to be a steady stream of new operators willing to acquire the aircraft. Unfortunately, most operators prefer leasing to acquisition, so a packaged sale provides the greater prospect of success. |
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A310-300F
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C
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1985-90
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12.7-22.9
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Being able to utilize the A310-300 in a freighter role requires relatively consistent traffic levels. Operating costs have to be spread over a greater number of hours as a means of offsetting the higher capital costs. There are still a number of -300s suited to the conversion process, making it likely that there will continue to be pressure on rentals. The arrival of the B767-200SF represents something of a threat to the A310-300. |
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A310-300F
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1991-97
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24.0-33.9
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Being able to utilize the A310-300 in a freighter role requires relatively consistent traffic levels. Operating costs have to be spread over a greater number of hours as a means of offsetting the higher capital costs. There are still a number of -300s suited to the conversion process, making it likely that there will continue to be pressure on rentals. The arrival of the B767-200SF represents something of a threat to the A310-300. |
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B707-320CH
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E--
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1965-72
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0.2-0.6
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The B707 still has some relevance both as a museum piece and as a freighter for the ad hoc charter operators. |
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B727-100C
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E
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1965-71
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0.3-0.8
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The B727-100 freighter no longer carries any weight as a type suited to asset-based financing. While money can still be made from the aircraft, the days when the -100 represented an investment opportunity have long gone. Hushkits have failed to quell the noise of cutting equipment. |
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B727-100CH
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E++
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1965-71
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0.8-1.1
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The B727-100 freighter no longer carries any weight as a type suited to asset-based financing. While money can still be made from the aircraft, the days when the -100 represented an investment opportunity have long gone. Hushkits have failed to quell the noise of cutting equipment. |
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B727-200FA
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D-
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1972-78
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0.7-1.3
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The B727-200FA has the ability to offer operators a way to make a profit, at least until a D check looms. Longstanding owners may have made a profit, though those still experiencing negative equity are unlikely to find any solace in long term storage. The hushed versions may well be the subject of replacements, but many remain in service, enough to suggest that values have achieved a measure of stability, albeit at the expense of having fallen so far in the last few years. |
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B727-200FA
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D--
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1979-83
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1.4-2.0
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The B727-200FA has the ability to offer operators a way to make a profit, at least until a D check looms. Longstanding owners may have made a profit, though those still experiencing negative equity are unlikely to find any solace in long term storage. The hushed versions may well be the subject of replacements, but many remain in service, enough to suggest that values have achieved a measure of stability, albeit at the expense of having fallen so far in the last few years. |
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B727-200FHA
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DD-
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1972-78
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1.2-2.1
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The B727-200FA has the ability to offer operators a way to make a profit, at least until a D check looms. Longstanding owners may have made a profit, though those still experiencing negative equity are unlikely to find any solace in long term storage. The hushed versions may well be the subject of replacements, but many remain in service, enough to suggest that values have achieved a measure of stability, albeit at the expense of having fallen so far in the last few years. |
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B727-200FHA
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DD-
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1979-83
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2.0-2.6
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The B727-200FA has the ability to offer operators a way to make a profit, at least until a D check looms. Longstanding owners may have made a profit, though those still experiencing negative equity are unlikely to find any solace in long term storage. The hushed versions may well be the subject of replacements, but many remain in service, enough to suggest that values have achieved a measure of stability, albeit at the expense of having fallen so far in the last few years. |
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B737-300QC
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C++
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1986-91
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9.0-13.4
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The B737-300SF and QC may have considerable merit in the coming years. Though there may be a question mark over nighttime operations in Europe, there are still many opportunities for such aircraft during other times of the day. High-speed trains continue to focus on passengers rather than freight, making airfreight a sure way to meet deadlines. The expansion of the European Community to the East will also increase the demand for airfreight. However, values cannot be much higher than $12 million if profitability is to be achieved. |
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B737-300QC
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C++
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1992-97
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14.2-17.8
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The B737-300SF and QC may have considerable merit in the coming years. Though there may be a question mark over nighttime operations in Europe, there are still many opportunities for such aircraft during other times of the day. High-speed trains continue to focus on passengers rather than freight, making airfreight a sure way to meet deadlines. The expansion of the European Community to the East will also increase the demand for airfreight. However, values cannot be much higher than $12 million if profitability is to be achieved. |
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B747-100SF
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E
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1969-76
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1.8-4.2
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The B747-100SF continues to represent an expensive drain on resources in terms of maintenance, fuel, crewing and time. |
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B747-200SF
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D
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1974-78
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6.8-9.3
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With demand for airfreight continuing to increase, the -200SF still has a role to play, albeit in a supporting context. The plight of Atlas Air is doing little to dispel perceptions surrounding the aircraft and values are likely to remain depressed even when units are returned to service, or more fully utilized, in the coming months. Should the U.S. be successful in extricating itself from the Middle East, then the -200SF will need to find an alternative source of demand. Values of the younger examples, in particular, still may have some scope for further declines. |
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B747-200SF
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D
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1979-84
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10.0-14.7
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With demand for airfreight continuing to increase, the -200SF still has a role to play, albeit in a supporting context. The plight of Atlas Air is doing little to dispel perceptions surrounding the aircraft and values are likely to remain depressed even when units are returned to service, or more fully utilized, in the coming months. Should the U.S. be successful in extricating itself from the Middle East, then the -200SF will need to find an alternative source of demand. Values of the younger examples, in particular, still may have some scope for further declines. |
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B747-400F
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B+
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1993-03
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77.9-139.0
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The predicament of Atlas Air in terms of Chapter 11 continues to represent a major concern for values of this aircraft, despite having been evident for months if not years. Perhaps of greater or equal significance to values of the -400F is the launch of the -400SF program. Offering the prospect of cheaper post-conversion pricing, maintaining a substantial premium will prove difficult. However, in the context of greater versatility due to a nose loading door and a boom in traffic, the -400F may yet see a reversal of fortunes. |
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B757PF
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B-
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1987-93
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17.7-26.5
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The B757SF is beginning to take on greater significance as more owners see the conversion as a means of achieving higher net rentals and lower lessee volatility. The values of the original freighter are making it increasingly difficult to justify a premium unless featuring a significantly lower accumulated utilization. |
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B757PF
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B-
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1994-98
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27.5 -34.8
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The B757SF is beginning to take on greater significance as more owners see the conversion as a means of achieving higher net rentals and lower lessee volatility. The values of the original freighter are making it increasingly difficult to justify a premium unless featuring a significantly lower accumulated utilization. |
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B757SF
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B-
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1982-87
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9.9-18.6
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The B757SF is beginning to take on greater significance as more owners see the conversion as a means of achieving higher net rentals and lower lessee volatility. The values of the original freighter are making it increasingly difficult to justify a premium unless featuring a significantly lower accumulated utilization. |
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B757SF
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B-
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1988-93
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17.5-29.0
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The B757SF is beginning to take on greater significance as more owners see the conversion as a means of achieving higher net rentals and lower lessee volatility. The values of the original freighter are making it increasingly difficult to justify a premium unless featuring a significantly lower accumulated utilization. |
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BAe146QT
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C+
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1984-89
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2.7-5.7
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A type that remains ideally suited to the needs of the night freight market. With the increasing emphasis on environmental compliance, the BAe146QT is well placed to allay concerns. The ability to use the aircraft from a variety of regional airports is also likely to put it in good stead. With BAE Systems seeking to convert a fresh batch, the potential for further units may exist. |
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L1011-200F
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E--
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1975-81
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1.6-3.5
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Few have time for the L1011-200F except as a museum piece. |
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DC8-61F
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E++
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1968-71
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1.2-1.4
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The DC8 freighter remains a great aircraft but unfortunately a once seemingly unassailable market presence has been sorely tried and clearly breached. Availability and age are against the type. |
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DC8-63F
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D-
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1968-71
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1.4-1.6
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The DC8 freighter remains a great aircraft but unfortunately a once seemingly unassailable market presence has been sorely tried and clearly breached. Availability and age are against the type. |
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DC8-71F
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C--
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1968-71
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5.8-6.9
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The -70 series, with their CFM56 engines, continue to provide operators with exceptional performance. Previous assumed residual value strength lay with the lack of a replacement. Unfortunately, the absence of a direct replacement in the context of a changing market structure has little relevance to the actual performance of values. |
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DC8-73F
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C
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1968-71
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7.5-8.6
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The -70 series, with their CFM56 engines, continue to provide operators with exceptional performance. Previous assumed residual value strength lay with the lack of a replacement. Unfortunately, the absence of a direct replacement in the context of a changing market structure has little relevance to the actual performance of values. |
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DC10-30F
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C--
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1971-78
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7.0-10.9
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The DC10-30F was noted for something of a Houdini act during the 1990s, but the current market seems to offer little prospect of respite. Some of the surplus units may be called in to act as temporary capacity during the expected upswing, and markets outside traditional arenas may allow a measure of improvement, but both will be short lived. |
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DC10-30F
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C--
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1979-84
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11.3-12.8
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The DC10-30F was noted for something of a Houdini act during the 1990s, but the current market seems to offer little prospect of respite. Some of the surplus units may be called in to act as temporary capacity during the expected upswing, and markets outside traditional arenas may allow a measure of improvement, but both will be short lived. |
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MD11SF
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C+
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1991-93
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38.0-44.5
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The MD11SF is likely to experience a surge in demand as operators seek a capable aircraft in an expanding market. Long lead times for further conversions will likely allow values of existing MD11SFs a measure of improvement, and will partially reverse recent falls. |
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MD11SF
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C+
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1994-99
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47.5-57.1
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The MD11SF is likely to experience a surge in demand as operators seek a capable aircraft in an expanding market. Long lead times for further conversions will likely allow values of existing MD11SFs a measure of improvement, and will partially reverse recent falls. |
| Commentary reflects change from the last update to Freighter Rentals of November 2003. |
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