Turboprop Values Exhibit Stability

The values of turboprops have continued to enjoy solid performance to the extent that prices and lease rentals have achieved a measure of stability after a period of improvement. A consequence of the recovery in the turboprop market has been the difficulty for some traders to find aircraft to sell. With a...

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The values of turboprops have continued to enjoy solid performance to the extent that prices and lease rentals have achieved a measure of stability after a period of improvement.

A consequence of the recovery in the turboprop market has been the difficulty for some traders to find aircraft to sell. With a number of operators pursuing a relatively few aircraft, the market remains in the hands of the sellers. For the manufacturers, a greater opportunity for forward planning has emerged. Instead of having to manufacture aircraft virtually to order, production rates have increased to meet renewed demand, demand that was believed by some to have declined for ever. The new market structure, stimulated by an event that has thrown the industry into chaos a number of times before, has however, created new threats to existing turboprop values. With the renewed interest in turboprops, manufacturers are considering at the very least enhancements to existing products through to complete replacements. The age profile of the existing turboprop fleet makes it ripe for replacement. Existing designs, while revamped, are essentially 1980 vintage aircraft. Replacements in the form of new types will inevitably affect residual values of existing types. Yet the demand of the 1980s was borne out of a need to meet the demands of a stringent hub and spoke system in the U.S., something which has undergone a radical change and will continue to do so in the coming years should the price of fuel remain on course to rise ever higher.

The demand for new turboprops, and moreover the ability of manufacturers to perhaps charge more for their products, continues to demonstrate the recovery in this sector. For nearly ten years, the turboprop sector was virtually written off, with a number of manufacturers withdrawing voluntarily or forcibly from the sector. The improvement in the fortunes of the sector is not solely a function of higher fuel prices. With the rise of the regional jet, the turboprop lost favor among both operators and passengers. An all jet service was pursued, sometimes at the expense of operating economics. As the structure has changed once more, from regionals feeding the mainline carriers to greater independence, operators have needed to place operating economics higher than passenger preference. The structure of the turboprop market has also expanded beyond normal boundaries such that there is appetite from new market players in new regions. Finally, as turboprop manufacturing has centered on just two products, the need to retire older equipment has forced operators to seek replacements from the used sector.

Assumptions

The listing of current and future market values is based on the year of build. The essential assumption, following ISTAT Market Value guidelines, is that the aircraft is being sold as a single unit and between a willing seller and willing buyer for cash. The high and low figures for December 2007 current values represent adjustments for offer and sale prices, financing arrangements, specification differences, maintenance status and condition. These are not absolutes and distressed sales as well as sale and leaseback transactions may fall outside the figures indicated.

The future market (not base) values - three and eight years hence from June 2007 - are expressed in current dollars, are based on the mid case current value, and include an adjustment for inflation that varies on an annual basis. The figures are for guidance only and are not intended to reflect actual recent market transactions - assuming that any exist. Rather the values represent the considered worth of the aircraft tempered by the prevailing market conditions. A subjective aircraft rating is also indicated, reflecting the relative suitability of the type for asset based financing in the prevailing market conditions and in the short to medium term. The values reflect aircraft based on a U.S. specification. European specification can command higher values, sometimes in excess of $1 million.

The figures have been extracted from the December 31st 2007 edition of semi-annual Turboprop Volume of The Aircraft Value Reference 2007-2027 priced US$595.00 per annum (Turboprops). Courtesy of The Aircraft Value Analysis Company. Tel: +44 (0) 1789 730283. Fax: +44 (0) 1789 730309. E-mail: pleighton@aircraftvalues.net. Internet http://www.aircraftvalues.net).

ATR42-300. AIRCRAFT RATING: C--

While the original ATR may now be more than 20 years of age the type still retains considerable relevance for the turboprops market. The longevity of the more modern turboprops, featuring perhaps lighter structures than their predecessors, was always an unknown. However, with life extension programs and the lack of new products, a minimum 25 year life seems possible. The values of the -300 are buoyed by the freighter conversion program which is helping to contain availability.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1985	1.4	2.0	2.4	1.5	-
1987	1.7	2.5	3.0	1.9	1.0
1989	2.1	2.9	3.5	2.3	1.2
1991	2.4	3.4	4.1	2.7	1.5
1993	2.7	3.9	4.7	3.1	1.7
1995	3.1	4.4	5.3	3.6	2.0
1997	3.4	4.9	5.8	3.7	2.3

 

ATR42-320. AIRCRAFT RATING: C

The level of overall availability has been relatively low for the last year. Some sources suggest that as many as 18 -300s are in storage while the level of availability may be in single figures. For a 20 year old aircraft, the type should be available in numbers due to shorter retention periods by various operators. However, with only a few being advertised this suggests that the market remains strong. While operators may wish to acquire new aircraft they also recognize that new aircraft cost a lot more without necessarily adding much in terms of operating economics except perhaps through a maintenance holiday.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1988	2.0	2.9	3.6	2.3	1.1
1990	2.4	3.4	4.2	2.8	1.3
1992	2.7	3.9	4.8	3.2	1.6
1994	3.1	4.4	5.4	3.7	1.9

ATR42-400. AIRCRAFT RATING C

Though few ATR42s were actually produced as -400s, the modest difference in specification ensures there is little chance of marginalization. The -400 is powered by PWC121A engines offering slightly better performance.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1996	3.7	5.0	6.0	4.1	2.2

ATR42-500. AIRCRAFT RATING: B++

New orders for the ATR42 are relatively few now that the trend is towards the larger variant which offer lower seat miles costs. There are however none in stora4ge and few if any used examples on the market. With the build up in the orderbook, obtaining an early delivery is becoming more difficult, forcing operators to the used market. Values remain stable even if list prices have risen. Even with more restrained appetite for the type in terms of new orders, the used market should continue to remain strong.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1995	4.9	5.9	7.1	4.8	2.5
1997	6.0	7.2	8.7	5.9	3.2
1999	7.1	8.5	10.2	7.1	3.9
2001	8.1	9.8	11.8	8.4	4.8
2003	9.2	11.1	13.3	9.8	5.8
2005	10.3	12.4	14.8	11.3	7.0

ATR72-200. AIRCRAFT RATING: C+

There exist only a few units in storage and some of these may be in the process of either beong converted or being readied for new operators. The demand for the larger turboprop remains very strong such that a clear shortage exists. The problems of the 50 seat regional jet market in terms of unacceptable operating costs has turned operators to alternatives.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1989	3.1	4.2	5.0	3.3	1.6
1991	3.6	5.0	5.8	3.8	1.8
1993	4.1	5.7	6.6	4.4	2.2
1995	4.6	6.4	7.5	5.1	2.5

ATR72-210. AIRCRAFT RATING: C+

The -210 offers improved performance allowing operators to use shorter, higher, hotter runways. The -210 represents only a marginal difference in terms of specification such that isolation is not expected.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1992	4.2	5.5	6.6	4.4	2.1
1994	4.8	6.3	7.5	4.5	2.5
1996	5.4	7.1	8.5	5.8	2.9
1998	6.0	7.9	9.5	6.6	3.4

ATR72-210A. AIRCRAFT RATING: B--

The slight improvement in performance is also an important consideration for the operator. The -500 has been the more preferred but in a period of shortage the merits of the -210A are seen in a better light.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1997	6.4	7.8	9.3	6.4	3.2

ATR72-500. AIRCRAFT RATING: A--

The number of new orders for the -500 continues to please ATR. At one time production was less than 20 which created considerable problems for economies of scale but in the last two years production has been rising at a considerable rate. The type is demand from a number of sectors though there also exists an appetite for even greater efficiency in the form of more seats and even a new model. Values have remained consistently strong. The problems associated with the Dash8-400 had no direct impact on the ATR models. For residual values of the ATR product the possibility of a replacement must be taken seriously. It is all too easy to consider that the current market conditions will remain the status quo for the next years but in aviation, there is no such thing as a static display.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1998	8.6	10.0	11.5	8.7	4.9
2000	10.1	11.8	13.5	10.5	6.0
2002	11.7	13.6	15.6	12.5	7.4
2004	13.2	15.4	17.7	14.6	9.1
2006	14.8	17.2	19.8	16.8	10.9

Beech B99. AIRCRAFT RATING: E+

It would be expected that with the price of fuel that the 19 seat market would be in disarray. While operating costs have certainly increased such are the short sector lengths that the fuel component of direct operating costs is small in comparison with other factors.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1969	0.04	0.08	0.20	-	-
1971	0.06	0.11	0.28	-	-
1973	0.07	0.14	0.36	-	-
1975	0.09	0.18	0.44	-	-

Beech C99. AIRCRAFT RATING: D-

The Beech C99 offered improved performance over the B99. With the focus on passenger weights any improvement in performance is welcome.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1981	0.12	0.21	0.37	0.12	-
1983	0.14	0.24	0.43	0.17	-
1985	0.16	0.27	0.48	0.19	-

Beech 1900C. AIRCRAFT RATING: D-

The 19 seat market has been suffering for perhaps a decade or more but with the lack of new production, those quality units can still be sought after. There are only some 14 Beech 1900s in storage with just under 20 being advertised, representing a reasonably modest amount.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1983	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.3	-
1985	0.3	0.5	0.8	0.4	-
1987	0.4	0.6	1.0	0.5	0.2

Beech 1900C-1. AIRCRAFT RATING: D

The older models are inevitably going to be replaced by newer examples and the 1900C-1 is no exception. The combination of age and operating economics will take their toll such that the newer 1900D will become more favored. For the time being, values remain stable.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1987	0.5	0.8	1.1	0.6	0.3
1989	0.6	0.9	1.3	0.7	0.4
1991	0.7	1.0	1.5	0.8	0.4

Beech 1900D. AIRCRAFT RATING: C-

A good aircraft though where possible operators may wish to operate larger aircraft. However, there exist many routes, and indeed airports, which simply cannot cope with larger equipment in terms of traffic density. The 19 seaters will therefore remain a feature of the market with quality aircraft remaining favored and new types will increasingly displace, the old.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1992	0.9	1.3	1.8	1.1	0.5
1994	1.2	1.8	2.5	1.5	0.7
1996	1.5	2.2	3.1	1.9	1.0
1998	1.8	2.7	3.7	2.3	1.2
2000	2.1	3.1	4.4	2.8	1.5
2002	2.4	3.6	5.0	3.3	1.8

DHC6-300. AIRCRAFT RATING: C

The development of an improved model has not undermined the values of the old but have rather served to highlight its relative efficiency and unique characteristics. There are very few being advertised or indeed in storage although this may be a consequence of a more diverse operator base which includes private operators.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1969	0.16	0.24	0.42	-	-
1971	0.21	0.33	0.56	-	-
1973	0.26	0.41	0.70	-	-
1975	0.31	0.49	0.84	-	-
1977	0.36	0.57	0.98	-	-
1979	0.42	0.65	1.1	-	-
1981	0.47	0.73	1.3	0.57	-
1983	0.52	0.82	1.4	0.64	-
1985	0.57	0.90	1.5	0.71	-

DHC7-100. AIRCRAFT RATING: E+

The DHC7 was a major user of fuel when it was first developed. In todays environment it is little wonder that there should be a number in storage. The type has to be viewed as a specialist aircraft that may offer certain agencies loitering capability through turning off two engines. The fortunes of the DHC7 contrast with the majority of other turboprops.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1977	0.19	0.35	0.76	-	-
1979	0.25	0.44	0.97	-	-
1981	0.30	0.54	1.2	0.38	-
1983	0.35	0.63	1.4	0.46	-
1985	0.41	0.73	1.6	0.53	-
1987	0.46	0.82	1.8	0.61	0.26

DASH8-100. AIRCRAFT RATING: D++

A few years ago the Dash8-100 would have been seen as being consigned to the sidelines. While the preference is certainly for other products, the -100 still has sufficient merit to allow values to either remain steady or actually improve.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1984	1.1	1.5	2.2	1.1	-
1986	1.3	1.9	2.8	1.4	0.7
1988	1.6	2.3	3.4	1.7	0.8
1990	1.9	2.7	4.0	2.1	1.0

DASH8-100A. AIRCRAFT RATING: C--

The spread of variants can be confusing but most only signify a change in engine and MTOW. Generally the A and B versions denote improved performance while the Q series reflect improved noise attenuation and other improvements. Specifically the -100A offers a restyled interior.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1992	2.5	3.6	5.2	3.0	1.5
1994	2.8	4.1	5.9	3.3	1.7
1996	3.2	4.6	6.6	3.7	2.0

DASH8Q-100A. AIRCRAFT RATING: C-

The Q or Quiet series denotes much improvement in terms of interior noise suppression. The Q series also saw a number of other refinements that makes it more attractive when compared to earlier variants. With the wider revival of the turboprop market, the type remains in demand. The Q series also feature PW121 engines in place of PW120As.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1997	4.2	6.0	8.7	5.0	2.7
1999	4.6	6.5	9.5	5.6	3.0
2001	5.0	7.1	10.4	6.3	3.5

DASH8-100B. AIRCRAFT RATING: D++

The B version provides slightly better performance.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1992	2.7	3.9	5.8	3.1	1.6
1994	3.0	4.4	6.5	3.5	1.8
1996	3.3	4.8	7.1	3.9	2.1

DASH8Q-100B. AIRCRAFT RATING: C-

Production of the -100 ended some years ago such that values have declined, a trend that has continued albeit more recently in modest terms.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1997	4.3	6.1	9.1	5.1	2.8
1999	4.8	6.8	10.0	5.7	3.3
2001	5.2	7.5	11.0	6.4	3.8

DASH8-200A. AIRCRAFT RATING: C-

Bombardier has recently announced that production of -200 has ended signaling the lack of demand for the type at least as a new aircraft. However, the used market remains strong not least because the type offers a means of upgrading from the 19 seaters. Offering the same capacity as the -100 indicates that the -200 is just as exposed to changing market forces which have increasingly favored larger aircraft. The -200A offered operators the chance to use PW123C engines.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1992	2.8	4.1	5.8	3.3	1.7
1994	3.1	4.5	6.4	3.6	1.9
1996	3.4	4.9	7.0	4.0	2.1

DASH8Q-200A. AIRCRAFT RATING: C+

The fitment of a new interior and reduction in vibration provided new levels of passenger comfort.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1997	4.4	6.3	8.8	5.2	2.7
1999	4.8	7.0	9.8	5.9	3.2
2001	5.3	7.7	10.8	6.6	3.7

DASH8-200B. AIRCRAFT RATING: C

The -200B again provides for an incremental performance improvement over the -200A. The -200B provided an upgraded powerplant in the form of the PW123D. Operators are continually seeking additional performance because of the fine balance between payload, range and airfield length.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1992	3.1	4.5	6.4	3.6	1.8
1994	3.5	5.0	7.1	4.0	2.1
1996	3.8	5.5	7.8	4.5	2.4

DASH8Q-200B. AIRCRAFT RATING: C++

Though a few orders for the -200 were placed in recent years, the demand for -400 ensures that production facilities are focused on the more popular types. Producing a model in limited numbers and with a specification that differs from the -400 creates considerable problems. The used market remains strong though again operators may be seeking the -300 as a means of reducing seat mile costs assuming that there is sufficient traffic to fill the aircraft.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1997	4.4	6.3	8.8	5.2	2.8
1999	4.9	7.1	9.9	6.0	3.3
2001	5.5	7.9	11.1	6.9	3.9

DASH8-300. AIRCRAFT RATING: C--

The greater capacity of the -300 allows operators the opportunity to extract more revenue. The type also represents a natural progression from the -100/-200. Even those in lesser condition are being sought. The larger Dash8 provides much more solid performance for operators offering greater capacity with their PW123 engines.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1988	2.3	3.2	4.4	2.5	1.2
1990	2.6	3.6	4.9	2.8	1.4

DASH8-300A. AIRCRAFT RATING: B

Examples that were seemingly left on the sidelines have more recently been placed back into service.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1992	3.5	4.9	6.7	3.9	2.0
1994	4.0	5.7	7.8	4.6	2.4
1996	4.6	6.5	8.9	5.3	2.8

DASH8Q-300A. AIRCRAFT RATING: B--

Production of the -300 has also ended as demand for the type has consistently declined to single digits. Production effort needs to be focused on the -400 which offers the prospect of higher margins. There are only a few -300s in storage and only a limited number being advertised for sale or lease.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1997	5.9	8.0	11.1	6.5	3.6
1999	6.6	8.9	12.3	7.4	4.2
2001	7.3	9.8	13.5	8.4	4.8

DASH8-300B. AIRCRAFT RATING: B--

The B series features a further improvement in engines albeit minor. The PW123B powerplant is used rather than the PW123A.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1992	4.0	5.2	7.1	4.1	2.1
1994	4.6	6.0	8.2	4.8	2.5
1996	5.2	6.8	9.3	5.6	3.0

DASH8Q-300B. AIRCRAFT RATING: B-

The ending of production has failed to dent values of used examples such is the sustained demand for used examples of the type. Freighter conversion of older -300s remains an important source of demand but such is the strength of the market that there will be relatively few candidates in the short term. The -300B is powered by PW123B engines and features a new interior and reduced vibration compared to the non Q series.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1997	6.1	8.2	11.0	6.8	3.8
1999	6.9	9.3	12.4	7.8	4.4
2001	7.7	10.3	13.8	8.9	5.2
2003	8.5	11.4	15.2	10.2	6.1
2005	9.3	12.4	16.6	11.6	7.3

DASH8Q-400 AIRCRAFT RATING: A--

The last year has seen some changes in the fortunes of the Dash8-400 which are now much improved. The development of the NG represents a modest change to the basic specification although there are plans for further developments. The values of the type are recovering well from their 10-12 percent discounting such that there within a few months they may well be fully recovered. The order for the new variant from SAS has provided a fillip though those that are grounded need to be placed back into service with some operator as soon as possible.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
2000	10.8	12.9	15.3	11.5	6.6
2002	12.6	15.0	17.9	13.8	8.2
2004	14.4	17.1	20.4	16.3	10.0
2006	16.2	19.2	22.9	18.8	12.2

BAe Super J31. AIRCRAFT RATING: D++

A significant number remain in storage, something which has plagued the type for many years. However, quality units can still be placed and such has been the decline in values in previous years that more recently there has been notable stability.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1988	0.44	0.62	1.1	0.49	0.24
1990	0.59	0.83	1.4	0.67	0.34
1992	0.74	1.04	1.77	0.85	0.45

BAe J41. AIRCRAFT RATING: D+

BAE continues to place aircraft but a number appear to be still in storage according to some sources. The type sought to build upon the success of the Jetstream 31 but arrived too late to market as a result of dithering by the manufacturer. Again, used values have previously fallen by a significant amount such that any more recent falls have been more modest.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1992	1.2	1.6	2.6	1.3	0.6
1994	1.4	1.9	3.1	1.5	0.7
1996	1.7	2.2	3.5	1.8	0.9

HS748-2 (BAe). AIRCRAFT RATING: E+

Age cannot wither her nor diminish her beauty - except it can. The type has long since passed its sell by date and pricing is such that a Range Rover costs more.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1962	0.04	0.08	0.17	-	-
1964	0.05	0.11	0.24	-	-
1966	0.07	0.14	0.30	-	-
1968	0.08	0.17	0.37	-	-
1970	0.10	0.20	0.44	-	-
1972	0.11	0.23	0.50	-	-

HS748-2B (BAe). AIRCRAFT RATING: C--

The -2B provides for improved performance but again engine status plays a more important role in determining value.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1975	0.16	0.27	0.63	-	-
1977	0.18	0.32	0.72	-	-
1979	0.21	0.36	0.82	-	-
1981	0.23	0.40	0.92	0.29	-
1983	0.26	0.44	1.01	0.33	-

BAe Super 748. AIRCRAFT RATING: D+

The freighter conversion program has thrown a life line to the type and values have achieved some stability as a result.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1985	0.29	0.49	0.93	0.37	-
1987	0.45	0.76	1.43	0.58	0.25

BAe ATP/Jetstream 61. AIRCRAFT RATING: D++

The conversion program and placement with passenger operators has allowed values of the type to remain relatively steady. There remain a number in storage though this may be a function of awaiting conversion. With so few built in the first instance, availability should be limited in any event.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1988	0.85	1.4	2.2	1.0	0.53
1990	1.1	1.7	2.8	1.3	0.6
1992	1.3	2.1	3.4	1.6	0.8

CASA 212-200. AIRCRAFT RATING: D--

The type continues to have merit such that the number in storage is limited.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1982	0.12	0.19	0.33	0.12	-
1984	0.17	0.26	0.46	0.18	-
1986	0.22	0.34	0.59	0.24	0.09

CASA 212-300. AIRCRAFT RATING: D-

The more versatile -300 provides better economics but the development of turboprops by such countries as China and Russia shows how much the market has changed since the aircraft was first introduced.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1987	0.37	0.55	0.93	0.38	0.16
1989	0.54	0.80	1.4	0.57	0.26
1991	0.71	1.1	1.8	0.77	0.36
1993	0.88	1.3	2.2	0.96	0.47
1995	1.1	1.6	2.6	1.2	0.59
1997	1.2	1.8	3.1	1.4	0.72

CN235. AIRCRAFT RATING: D

A type that has managed to secure a niche in the market for perhaps long than some might have expected. The type has a variety of uses such that it is not entirely dependent on the traditional commercial passenger market. Values should be expected to continue to fall, particularly for the younger examples.

YEAR	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE LOW	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE MID	December 2007 CURRENT VALUE HIGH	FUTURE VALUE 2010	FUTURE VALUE 2015
1988	1.3	1.8	3.0	1.4	0.64
1990	1.4	2.1	3.4	1.6	0.75
1992	2.0	2.9	4.8	2.3	1.1
1994	2.4	3.5	5.7	2.8	1.4
1996	2.8	4.0	6.6	3.2	1.6
1998	3.1	4.5	7.5	3.8	1.9

CONVAIR 580F. AIRCRAFT RATI