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Monday, April 28, 2008

A320 Residual Values Could be Impacted by Intriguing Testing of P&W GTF

The announcement that Airbus is to undertake testing of the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan (GTF) on one of the company's A340s is an interesting development and one which could potentially have medium-term implications for the current A320 family. Airbus is to start testing the Pratt & Whitney GTF...

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The announcement that Airbus is to undertake testing of the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan (GTF) on one of the company's A340s is an interesting development and one which could potentially have medium-term implications for the current A320 family.

Airbus is to start testing the Pratt & Whitney GTF in the fourth quarter of this year. The aircraft to be used will be an A340. The testing suggests that Airbus has some interest in the new GTF. Bombardier has announced that the GTF will be used to power the CSeries and Mitsubishi Regional Jet has also selected the powerplant. The GTF, while featuring a number of moving parts which could have negative performance implications, offers the promise of lower operating costs, much sought after in the current climate.

In seeking a replacement for the A320 and B737 families both Airbus and Boeing have sought to play down an early decision citing the difficulties of producing an all new engine with sufficient fuel economy to replace existing equipment. Manufacturers are traditionally reticent concerning the launch of replacement products for fear of losing custom to the competition or delaying the placement of orders. Both Airbus and Boeing have recently sought to suggest that a narrowbody replacement will not be available for perhaps another decade. The development of the CSeries and the MRJ powered by the GTF suggest that alternatives at the lower end of the seating scale will be available much sooner, within five years, posing a problem for Airbus and Boeing alike. In any event, the aviation industry may not have the luxury of selecting its own timetable for a replacement should the regulatory authorities push for more environmentally friendly products to be introduced as soon as possible by means of economic penalties.

Airbus has stated that "the tests do not imply either a technological or a business decision on future product developments." However, when Airbus are combating a weak dollar, expenditure on the flight testing of an engine in which it has no interest is a costly exercise.

The GTF could be used as an interim solution to the eventual replacement of the A320 family. An upgrade to the A320, rather than a replacement, would provide breathing space until a more advanced engine can be developed. Such a move would create problems for Boeing as the manufacturer has a long standing relationship with CFMI in supplying engines for the B737 series. A switch to Pratt & Whitney, even as an interim solution, will not be favored.

There are considerable obstacles to using the GTF on all A320 family members, not least the A321. While development of the GTF is advanced, the power rating of the engine is still at the low end of the power range. Nonetheless, waiting 10 years or more for a new engine is a long time when there are pressures associated with an ageing product life cycle, desire for lower operating costs, and environmental concerns.

Airbus has also registered a patent for a tri-jet design featuring a butterfly tail that seeks to mitigate noise levels by the use of twin tails. The tri-jet designation had thought to be defunct after the demise of the MD11 but the ever increasing need for power from only two engines has brought about its own problems.


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