Aviationtoday.com: Flightplan to Where?

Aviation is in the throes of transition. Witness ADS-B, NextGen and composite construction. At the Web site Aviation Today and its affiliated publications, we don’t just cover these and other important trends — we try to anticipate and decipher them.

This is not to say that we’re soothsayers. Whether it’s the stock market or technological breakthroughs, no one can precisely predict the future — if someone says they can, hold on to your wallet. In the words of the great Yogi Berra: "Forecasting is difficult, especially about the future."

Whenever I watch the 1968 movie, "2001: A Space Odyssey," I can’t help but chuckle at Stanley Kubrick’s futuristic vision of interstellar Pan Am terminals. The blue Pan Am logo is ubiquitous in the film. As it turned out, the storied airline filed for bankruptcy in 1991, well before the new millennium.

That said, it’s still possible to make informed guesses with reasonable accuracy. Whether the topic is avionics, maintenance, composites or "green aviation," air transport has undergone enormous expansion and change. Now, aviation decision-makers are wondering: what’s our destination in the year ahead?

One thing already is clear: The aviation industry is poised to continue its unprecedented winning streak in 2008, further accelerating growth in the already hot avionics sector.

This optimistic forecast was on the agenda of a recent Aviation Today Webinar: "The Aviation Crystal Ball: Predictions and Analysis for 2008." The discussion is available on-demand at our Web site, www.AviationToday.com.

Double-digit growth in 2007 in both the civilian and military aircraft sectors fueled the fourth straight year of good times in the U.S. aerospace industry. According to the Aerospace Industries Association, overall aviation sales reached nearly $200 billion last year and they’ll hit at least $210 billion in 2008.

The world’s airlines scheduled a record number of flights in 2007 — 29.6 million — an increase of 4.7 million over 2006, according to Official Airline Guide, an aviation data gathering company. Put another way, that’s an average of 81,000 takeoffs a day. Low-cost carriers led the pack, with 4.6 million scheduled flights, an increase of 20 percent over 2006. Airlines are set to rack up another record number of flights this year.

Also in the cards is robust growth in the commercial air transport avionics market in 2008 and beyond. To be sure, the avionics market is vulnerable to a downturn in aircraft orders, but replacement cycles and the need for more efficient aircraft will moderate the adverse effects.

There will be strong avionics upgrade opportunities in mature markets such as the United States and Europe, until new narrowbody aircraft are introduced within the next decade. Consolidation likely will continue among avionics companies looking to augment their market role in the retrofit segment. (You’ll find a study on the commercial air transport avionics market, produced by the consultancy G2 Solutions, in the "Research Reports" section of Aviation Today.)

Paradigm-shifting technologies are on the verge of shaking up the status quo, especially improvements in voice and data communications in the cockpit. It will take time, though, for these changes to enter the mainstream.

Historically, people have been slow to adopt cutting-edge innovations. The electric motor, invented in the latter part of the 19th century, promised revolutionary advances. But it wasn’t until the 1920s that this stunning new invention started to tangibly improve manufacturing productivity.

Likewise, throughout the early 1980s, the PC was to most users little more than a glorified word processor. It took a decade after its introduction for the PC to significantly transform the socio-economic landscape and boost Gross Domestic Product. We shall witness the same sort of delayed effect with many newly emerging aviation technologies.

As I state above, no one can precisely predict the future. But remember an old adage: chance favors the prepared mind.