A Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) conference held in mid-February focused on the integration of weather into the NextGen system. The in-development, multi-million dollar NextGen system will require integrated operations and decision-making to...
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A Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) conference held in mid-February focused on the integration of weather into the NextGen system.
The in-development, multi-million dollar NextGen system will require integrated operations and decision-making to increase capacity and reduce delays. The two-day conference provided a top-level review of the NextGen concept of operations primarily concerning "trajectory-based" and "super density" operations, assimilating weather information into future decision-making tools and processes.
"Weather accounts for 70 percent of flight delays and 21 percent of accidents," said Ken Leonard, Director, FAA Aviation Weather Office, at the JPDO-sponsored, government- industry NextGen Conference on Integrating Weather, Airports and Air Navigation Services.
And as much as two-thirds of weather-related delay is potentially avoidable, according to a recent aviation weather/air traffic management integration study.
The FAA's Mark Andrews, head of the NextGen JPDO Weather Working Group, said integrating weather into a NextGen National Plan will be a difficult task. He noted that there have been a variety of weather-related air traffic management projects undertaken in recent years since "weather is a large problem for the National Airspace System (NAS), something that causes a lot of havoc today. There have been a lot of efforts taken on by various agencies, research groups, academia and industry, but they were piecemeal in their approach."
The conference drew more than 200 participants from government and industry.
"In order to meet the future challenges, it is essential that all stakeholders are at the table so that we can find solutions that are both technologically feasible as well as operationally realistic," said Nick Sabatini, FAA associate administrator for aviation safety.
"While we can't assure pilots that they will always have clear flying conditions, we can, with the NextGen system, be a lot smarter in how the product detects and shares weather information. The idea is to get the right information to the right people at the right time and in the right format," he stated. "Weather is absolutely an aviation safety issue. Nature is a force to be reckoned with. Mother Nature affects on-time performance and capacity."
Sabatini does not see the primary weather challenge as a lack of technology. "Rather the challenge is how to practically integrate and implement the many proven technologies that are available today to enhance the overall system, providing a common situational awareness."
Echoing Andrews, Sabatini believes "we need a national plan for NextGen weather rather than a series of well-intentioned but disconnected efforts. We need, as a concerted effort, to clear a path forward so that we devise strategies that integrate weather forecasting technologies, air traffic control procedures, NextGen technologies, surface management and airport operations to mitigate some of the messes we've seen in recent years."
Sabatini described the future system as one based on aircraft-centric operations, where an aircraft's advanced onboard capabilities are used to enable precise four-dimensional navigation, improve surveillance, and permit aircraft to serve as information nodes in the system.
As nodes, he said, aircraft will be collectors of "secure, timely, accurate, and easily understood weather information," which will be used onboard for better decision-making. At the same time, aircraft will be disseminators of weather information that will be used in real time to develop better forecasts and to illustrate current conditions to other users.
After the plenary session, aviation weather experts split up into topic-focused work groups to discuss what the aviation and weather communities should accomplish in terms of operational and technical actions to ensure synchronized integration of weather information into operational decision-support tools.
Working groups discussed what operational and technical actions must be accomplished by the aviation and weather communities to ensure synchronized integration of weather information into operational decision support tools.
One working group explored the challenges of making network-enabled weather available to all users while a second panel looked at how NextGen could improve airport operations. Including ramp operations, deicing and runway snow removal, through proactive use of weather information.
NextGen will require enhanced tactical and strategic trajectory-based operations through the proactive use of real-time weather information. Trajectory-based operations (including ground, terminal and en route) must assimilate weather information into flight planning, rerouting and flow decision support tools, and the challenges of integrating updated weather and flight status into the cockpit.
Others attending the two-day event discussed the challenges of accomplishing super density operations in terminal environments, including how to use weather and safety information to set separation distances, and how to design decision-making tools.
Each work group considered policy changes and organizational innovations need to occur to make NextGen effective and what specific research efforts are needed to implement the NextGen concepts. Attendees explored what types of demonstrations or trials would be useful for either reducing risk or increasing confidence levels in the required new capabilities and what planning and programming needs to be accomplished to begin the transition to NextGen systems and operations that use the common weather picture.
Work group discussions focused on the near term, which Jim May, president and CEO of the Air Transport Association, coined as "the now side of the Next Generation Air Transportation System." He emphasized that airlines lose millions of dollars because of weather.
"Weather is a critical component of the overall NextGen integrated work plan. I can't think of a subject more important to the success of the NextGen product," the head of the airline organization added.
"Affordability is key," agreed Phil Boyer, president of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association, who emphasized that safety and "saving lives" should be the priority of all NextGen stakeholders.
Establishing a common weather information system will require "a huge cultural change," cautioned Elizabeth Lynn Ray, government co-chair of the JPDO's Air Navigation Services (ANS) Working Group.
Final work group recommendations were presented to a panel representing the JPDO, NOAA, FAA and NASA.
Matt Fronczak, chief dispatcher for Delta Airlines, representing one of the groups, presenting their recommendations focusing on the 4-D Weather Cube, which will play a critical role in providing a common situational awareness regarding weather. The cube will fuse many sources of information together to develop better forecasts for a location (using latitude, longitude, and altitude) and add the element of time so users may be better informed on the likelihood of weather impacts on advanced decision-making.
Fronczak also noted the importance of minimizing the interpretation of weather information, emphasizing readability and understandability of weather data from the users' perspective for successful weather integration.
Additional recommendations from groups called for simulations involving all the major players from industry and government to solve major challenges. Suggestions also called for further research, demonstrations, and simulations.
Conference attendees said that they are eager to see their hard work realized. Bill Watts, former turbulence program manager for Delta Airlines, said the conference meant both good and bad
news for the JPDO. While the conference was an overall success, he said industry will be anxious to see how their results are incorporated.
NextGen JPDO Director Charles Leader said that he was encouraged by the results.
"Many suggestions and recommendations will bring greater clarity to not only the operational improvements, but the Concepts of Operations and how the concepts are implemented within the system." He noted,
"The next step will be to refine plans on the next level and begin to define specificdemonstrations to move more rapidly into implementation and achieving the benefits of NextGen."
Added Leader: "NextGen is all about transformation and that includes how we make decisions about weather and how to be more effective in the way we operate."
A committee is developing a road map for integrating weather into NextGen.
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