At this year’s Paris Airshow, airframe manufacturers would rather talk about the future, not the present. Scott Carson, Boeing Commercial Aircraft’s president and CEO, set an appropriate mood, perhaps, when he gave his company’s 20-year forecast (actually revised forecast from a year ago) at the 2009 show. Despite geopoltical volatility, fluctuating fuel prices and the potential cloud of economic uncertainty, Carson foresees a “robust” market long term for commercial aviation. “It feels like we’re beginning to bounce off the bottom,” he added, referring to the economic downturn. In fact, he believes growth could begin next year, though he wouldn’t predict the recovery’s “slope.” Specifically, Carson forecast the sale of 16,800 new aircraft between now and 2028. That figure is lower than the one in Boeing’s previous forecast but still represents a $3.2-trillion market. The president and CEO says Boeing revised its previous forecast because of a sharp dip in the airfreight market. “However, if the global GDP [gross domestic product] recovers,” he added, “we see a recovery in the air freighter market, as well as in the [passenger] traffic market.” Carson sees growth despite such constraints as carbon-emission regulations, infrastructure-capacity issues and a new inhibiting factor — a crunch in the credit market. Regarding the threat of carbon-emission standards, currently pursued aggressively by the European Union, he said advancements should bring certification of a low-carbon fuel within two to three years and deliver a carbon-free industry by 2040. Carson also praised the Export-Import Bank for curtailing the credit crunch and, regarding infrastructure constraints, said aircraft today “can operate in smaller airspace.”
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