Special Report: Outlook 2007

Instead of looking at the myriad of forecasts available in the aviation industry to determine where we are headed for this outlook, I asked several industry visionaries to give their take on the future of aviation maintenance. As amazing and futuristic as these predictions are, they will be realities in the blink of an eye. Are you ready to meet the future? — Editor

Waypoint 2025: Maintaining Aviation in the Year 2025

By Jack Demeis

I invite you to take a journey into our industry’s future, experience how the developments of today will impact the aircraft maintenance community of tomorrow and examine what will emerge from this impact. Let’s take a glimpse at aircraft maintenance in the year 2025.

Setting the Stage

There are exciting developments occurring today that will have far reaching effects on the maintenance environment 18 years from now. As the opportunities and challenges of a globalized planet continue to expand and unfold, there is a growing demand from the global marketplace for more reliable and convenient air travel, not only for business but also for leisure travel.

This groundswell of demand has resulted in the accelerated development of new and different types of aircraft, and also in their corresponding design and engineering breakthroughs, including powerplants and avionics. In addition, the aviation community is being asked to provide these more reliable and convenient flight services to the business community at lower acquisition and operating costs than ever before. All of this adds up to supporting a record number of flights, safely and efficiently, for a record number of existing and emerging aircraft. Sounds simple, right? Surely we can continue on as we have in the past, with supply fulfilling demand and after-market services staying steady in its support role.

Included in this bucket of new aircraft are UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles), Orbital and Sub-Orbital Spacecraft, and the most visible new aircraft today, the VLJs (Very Light Jets). Today UAVs are being deployed primarily by the military for delivering ordinance, reconnaissance and surveillance. Civilian applications, however, are also on the rise in industries such as weather watch and research, air quality measurement, fire fighting and law enforcement. The UAV market is projected to hit 9,000 aircraft within seven years and be worth $19 billion.

A little further off in the horizon, but increasing as well, are the Orbital and Sub-Orbital Spacecraft such as SpaceShipOne and Space Adventures’ C-21. Today, there are approximately six operating space ports, four of which are in the United States. Interest in sub-orbital space flight has been bolstered by Bigelow Aerospace’s Americas Prize of $50 million. The prize will go the first private aircraft and crew of at least five to journey two orbits, return safely and repeat the feat within 60 days.

A little closer to home, and certainly more directly impactful, is the surge in emerging VLJs with their single pilot flight decks, short runway requirements, and much lower acquisition and operating costs.

Evaluating the Impact

With more aircraft, operators and airports in play, competition will escalate to levels we have never before experienced. This larger market space will demand high performance and a reliable maintenance infrastructure. High performance and reliability will be expected in areas such as communications, downtime, cost, efficiency, quality and safety. While none of these are new or profound, the level of performance expected in these areas will be unprecedented, and could not easily be met today. So let’s explore the opportunities that will emerge in order for us to be successful.

Exploring Emergent Opportunities

First and foremost, the maintenance community will need to join together in order to meet this challenge, and create standards in training, processes, information and interpretation of regulations. Additionally, the industry must consociate much further to create effective and efficient communications. A good start would be development of a shared knowledge base.

Maintenance requirements will emerge not only for traditional aircraft, but also for the influx of UAVs and Orbital/Sub-Orbital spacecraft, requiring tools and skills not readily available now. With the significant increase in the number of aircraft flying due primarily to the VLJs, many more municipal airports will receive traffic, unmanned automated air traffic control will be utilized, and smaller FBOs and repair stations will emerge.

These smaller operations will be required to provide service and maintenance to a deeper level than they do today. The distinctions between the specialized skill sets of avionics and aircraft technicians will become blurred; there will be more crossover of technical skills and less specialization.

Realizing the Future

Let’s take a look at where we’ve arrived — Waypoint 2025 — and get a glimpse of aircraft operation and maintenance in the year 2025.

• An air taxi operator flying his regular three or four hops per day lands at home base at the end of the day. After taxiing and shutting down, a button is pressed, the aircraft’s systems connect to the Internet and the aircraft’s data is electronically uploaded to a central location. The updated aircraft status is then transmitted back where the information can be reviewed as desired.

• The operator’s DOM or management company is notified the aircraft has maintenance coming due. While accessing the centralized aircraft records, an RFQ is created for the maintenance and is sent to selected Repair Stations (RS) via the Internet.

• The RSs receive the RFQ automatically into their quoting system and begin to create a response. In creating the response, each RS accesses, in real-time, a shared industry Knowledge Database & Flat Rate resources, parts suppliers, and outside service providers (repair orders, NDT, overhauls, etc.) via the Internet. The responses are completed and sent back to the operator for comparison and RS selection. The selected RS will be notified and with a button press its quotation turns into a work order.

• The maintenance date arrives and the operator takes off for the RS for service. Enroute, the operator gets a DC bus failure indication and the aircraft notifies the RS of the indication. A technician at the RS, while logged into the operator’s work order will begin interrogating the aircraft, running onboard diagnostics and troubleshoot the problem. Should the source of the problem be found, the RS will begin preparing for the corrective action which includes ensuring the appropriate parts and resources are available.

• Upon arrival at the RS hangar, with a button push, the aircraft records are automatically updated. Technicians begin to work on the aircraft by connecting it to a computer and running onboard diagnostics.

• Shop floor operations are completely paperless and the technicians are equipped with a small wireless headset and a handheld device. The wireless headset is used in conjunction with voice recognition software providing hands-free entry of data such as squawks, corrective actions, log book entries, etc. The wireless handheld is used for referencing documents, communications and also for entering information. As the technician works the work order is being updated automatically, and any activity affecting the aircraft records are being held in queue for QA review and sign-off.

• The customer, who can quite literally be almost anywhere, is reviewing the work order in real-time, approving squawks and statusing all aspects of progress on the aircraft.

• As work is completed, squawks are being reviewed and completed for billing and QA is finalizing aircraft records and logbook entries.

• On the last day of work, the work order is finalized and billed, the maintenance release is issued and the operator departs.

As the next two decades fill with growth and opportunities for the aircraft services market that we haven’t seen in a long time, I look forward to us joining together to meet these opportunities head-on.

Hyprelinked to a New Generation of Mechanics

By Clark Gordon

You are a newly certified aviation maintenance engineer, your growth in knowledge of mechanical and electrical/electronics from your original A&P ticket go hand in hand troubleshooting today’s aircraft. The professional development provided by PAMA and the specialized training within a multitude for mechanical and electrical endorsements has been a tremendous asset to the advancement of your career. It not only expanded you’re A&P horizons but provided you the tools to advance into management. Of course this was a natural progression, with today’s aircraft most of your time is managing; schedules, down time, parts, personnel, etc.

Your day starts with a hyperlink to the pass down reports from night shift. Within the report you confirm one of your aircraft is due in at 10:30 for a scheduled event. You open your browser to review real-time data downstreaming from the aircraft and see the aircraft has a few squawks as well. You pulling down the data from the aircraft for this leg and then compare the particular data of interest for the past five legs since the aircraft departed. Within the data you confirm codes for the various squawks reported. One squawk has been intermittent for the past three legs. Noting the updated ETA (must be strong tail winds) you start working on the expected turn time, manpower and parts needed, etc. You confirm this with the aircraft owners and leasing company. (Most aircraft will be leased because tax benefits aside, it does not make sense to own something with a short lifespan. Less expensive materials and the cost of liability for older aircraft make recycling the whole aircraft easier and more economical.)

Once all parties are in agreement with the squawk and corrective actions, you download the latest rev level for documents you will use for troubleshooting; maintenance pages and electrical drawings, etc., from the aircraft OEM to your tablet PC. Of course there are the latest FAA documents posted within the past 24 hours to review for applicability.

As already determined by the flight tracking data the aircraft arrives early at you hanger. You review the faults with the on-board flight engineer. Since the advent of UAVs years back, on-board pilots are not required. This saves costs and weight for the OEMs, cockpits are smaller and located in other areas of the aircraft, instruments, navigational displays, etc. are not required.

With your new type rating on this particular aircraft and the endorsements for the various electrical systems you breeze through the squawk list ordering the necessary parts from your local supplier. Because components are designed for multiple aircraft they are readily available locally so you do not have to keep a large inventory. Besides, smaller and lighter components equate to lower shipping cost. Parts management is so much easier than years back. Little things like having to stock various lubricants are a thing of the past. New low-friction surface materials eliminate the need for paste lubricants.

The last squawk is a bit more difficult, and has the focus of all parties involved including the owner and operator, an intermittent split between the left and right ailerons.

With the test data from the OEM, the fault data from the aircraft and your new head-up display (like goggles) you trace the "wiring" problem using thermal and electrical and optical radiation sensors to isolate the fault. Hydraulics is a thing of the past, new super conductors allow for smaller stronger electric motors for all mechanical actuators. Fiber optics and nano technology offer smaller faster sensors with greater redundancy. Everything is "fly by wire," cables are a thing of the past. In fact the only on-board liquids are potable water and fuel. Of course there is light; light for displays, light for fiber optics and the always dependable flash light.

Your last squawk turns out to be an interment ground. Why does it always seem to be a ground fault? All parties are pleased with the troubleshooting and corrective actions and the aircraft is released for service.

What does this mean for you in the future?

Aircraft support will have faster and easier having access to the multitude of supporting digital documentation, commonality in parts and materials and a greater degree of really "off-the-shelf" digital tools for the maintenance professional.

Increased education in specialized fields and areas of expertise will facilitate your personal growth within the aviation industry. This reminds you to follow up on the status of the A&P training for your newest employee. In the past five years this is the third high school student you have hired and groomed into a full-fledged aviation maintenance engineer. Internally you feel this is the greatest accomplishment that you have achieved within your aviation career. All those hours you spent through the years visiting local grade school and talking about aviation maintenance have paid off. It’s amazing how many young adults are interested in a career in aviation.

You Have Come a Long Way Baby

By Robin Lamar

Women have come a long way in this industry, baby! While the percentages are pitifully low (likely less than.001 actively working in 2006), job satisfaction and employment opportunities are high.

The human factors of women who wrench combine a person who enjoys the challenges of being different, and of technical work, with a passion for aviation. These folks did not get into their job by falling to the lowest part of the barrel or by letting others make decisions for them. They thought long and hard about the challenges and then strived to push open the doors to their dream job.

To be able to see the future, it’s best to take a look at the past. While the history of women in maintenance is long, it is also undocumented. Women were involved in maintenance and engineering from Katharine Wright (Orville and Wilbur’s sister), to the Phoebe Omlie Fairgrave, the first woman to receive an FAA maintenance certificate in 1926 to Marcia Buckingham, retired space shuttle lead inspector and founder of AWAM, the Association for Women in Aviation Maintenance. The role models for women go largely undocumented. While documentation of the roles of women in maintenance is low, their commitment to their jobs is high.

Even in the post 9/11 world it was not job insecurity, harassment, bad shifts or low wages that daunted this particular group. In surveys done by the AWAM, in answer to "What would make you change careers?" The surprising responses included: "Nothing," "Only death," and "It isn’t going to happen!" This same group of mechanics have a higher than average educational background with more than 24 percent of the women polled holding bachelor’s degrees and about 15 percent with master’s and above.

The issues confronting women are no longer the lack of opportunities to get a job or even acceptance on the job. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. In the years prior to 9/11, women technicians became a valued and respected commodity in the aviation industry. Managers and HR departments view employees as a part of the larger production team. They are a "part" of plane operations. If this "part" with the dash number of female, has better attendance, reliability, completes the job, and asks questions before breaking the plane, HR departments want more of that "part" regardless of gender. The common complaint is that good women get hired out of companies, lured by higher pay or greater opportunity for advancement. Just prior to 9/11 was a golden age of opportunity for women in the field. Women were rapidly advancing from wrench turning A&P to management, inspection, quality control and supervision. The natural disposition of the non-traditional employee supported the desire for change and challenge. After all, those are the same qualities that brought them into the field, a passion for aviation, willing to be outside the box, and work hard to get the job done, despite what might be seen as by others as handicaps, size, background and lack of support from co-workers. It has been obvious as women entered this field that they thrive on challenges. Drive, perseverance and determination to succeed are nearly universal characteristics of these mechanics. All of this was playing out in the pre-9/11 world. When tragedy literally hit our industry with planes impacting the towers, thousands of jobs vanished within weeks of the smoke. The livelihoods of capable, hardworking mechanics were destroyed, crumpled beneath the fear of a traumatized traveling public. The impact of the unemployment plague hit women hard. As the new kids on the block, last hired, first fired was crucial in drastically lowering the already low percentage of this population. Estimates range from as high as three percent of the total working mechanics to a post-9/11 low of.05 percent. Where there had been two to three women working at a 100-person station, now there were none. The newly promoted supervisors, QA and production staff found their whole department eliminated as cutbacks continued, with no fallback openings on the floor. A difficult time made worse by the disruption of the natural lines of networking that were lost in this crisis. Those that faired the best either had longevity or were part of larger organizations like the Professional Aviation Maintenance Association (PAMA) or AWAM, where the few job offerings were talked about and made available to the membership.

Opportunities in corporate aviation rose and the regionals reaped the benefit of many people on the streets. Women were some times at a disadvantage in this kind of movement. A guy could leave his wife and kids behind when forced to relocate. But that’s harder to do for moms and an impossibility for the single parent. Whole families would need to be relocated at a moments notice, childcare provided for and housing acquired while being at work 40 hours a week.

As the industry normalizes and the pendulum irrevocably swings back to shortages of trained mechanics and massive job opportunities, women are assuming maintenance roles at every level. There is a difference this time; much of the awkwardness is gone. These mechanics, while different from the rest, are no longer strangers and that makes them less intimidating. Whether it’s the same women we worked with before or new candidates for the job, all of us have been there, done that and lived to tell about it. One of the most rewarding moments for me came when one of my buddies (who had greeted women A&Ps with much resistance) let me know that he was working with a woman partner in his new job and she wasn’t bad at all, in fact he was happy to be working with her!

New challenges for women will be focused on the glass ceiling and women’s own misconceptions about the dynamics of the job. How do we tell women that is not about them as individuals, as the new hires get tested, teased and we prod their capabilities and limitations. It is a necessary part of a job where life and death is balanced by teamwork that creates informal safety nets in a dangerous field. We need to know as a team, as a part in a greater machine, where failure mode is. Not because we want anyone to fail, but because we want to prevent that failure. Each individual who enters this environment needs to be tested in a similar manner. Women who have been in the field can impart this information to new women coming into the team. Each new person endures this treatment for a time. A time of learning about how to fit into the team, where weakness can be turned to strength. And strength is added to the whole product.

At this time of the recreation of the aviation industry, we as individuals and as companies, must be open to new possibilities. Our industry will never be the same, it does not look, act or have the same needs. Our job is not just to anticipate those needs and prepare ourselves for different challenges, but also to take personal responsibility for the direction of the industry. It’s no longer enough to sit around the table and grumble at management, the economy or the weather. It’s time for us to get out of the box, to begin to take back control for the responsibilities of the lives of the people who sit in our silver birds, regardless of any factor including gender or ethnicity.