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Monday, December 1, 2003

Cutting Costs with Data Mining and Anticipatory Maintenance

Experience tells you that when a failed filter is discovered in a specific engine, the pump it protects is more likely to fail down the road. The problem is determining how likely this future failure is and whether it justifies replacing the pump or leaving it alone.

But what if you could prove that 40 percent of these pumps die three weeks after filter failure, compared with 5 percent of these pumps in properly filtered environments? Then you could make an informed decision on whether to replace the pump when the engine is already torn down, or to wait until later. You could even compare the costs of fixing it immediately versus the expense of unexpected repairs and aircraft downtime, and let the aircraft’s owner decide what to do.

This is the logic behind ‘Affinity Data Mining’, as offered in Exclusive Ore’s (www.exclusiveore.com) XAffinity Anticipatory Maintenance software. Called XAAM for short, this software ‘mines’ an airline or MRO’s database, looking for patterns in parts failures and how likely they are to happen.

"We base our mining on only three columns of data," explained Rob Gerritsen, president of Exclusive Ore. "All we need is an identifier (either an aircraft or engine ID), a part code that identifies the part that failed and was replaced, and a date that indicates when the repair was done."

This may not sound like much to go on, but it is enough for XAAM to determine the probability of a given pump stopping after the filter protecting it has failed and to compare that probability with the pump’s normal failure rate. Divide the first probability by the second–in this case, 40 divided by five– and you have what is known in data mining terms as the lift.

"The lift value–in this case eight–helps us determine what we call the surprise factor," Gerritsen said. "Basically, the higher the lift value, the higher the probability that the pump will fail in the future. The items with the highest surprise factors are the ones that MROs and owners want to know about before something happens."

Once the person responsible for an aircraft knows that a related part failure is likely, they can decide whether to perform anticipatory maintenance or not. To aid the decision, XAAM compiles probability-based recommendations on how likely a part is to fail and when. It can even compare the cost of anticipatory maintenance repairs versus unexpected repairs later on, when the aircraft might be broken down at a far-off airport.

The beauty of XAAM is that it uses hard data to provide managers with informed options. They still get to choose depending on their priorities and resources, but at least they can decide using facts and not hunches.

On a longer-term scale, the failure patterns detected by XAAM can also be used to improve aircraft maintenance schedules and routines. They can also determine what kind of failure relationships these patterns represent. For instance, a pump failing after its filter fails is a downstream incident. Meanwhile, if the remaining landing gear brakes regularly show excessive wear after an initial brake pad failure, it indicates that a full brake check is necessary in these cases. Finally, if an unrelated item tends to fail when another part is replaced, it may signal that contamination is occurring during the repair process.

One thing is certain: assuming that an airline/MRO has its historical repair data available to mine, Exclusive Ore’s XAAM can use this data to help develop more timely, cost-saving anticipatory maintenance practices.

"The challenge is that airlines haven’t stored much of their parts’ histories in computer databases," Gerritson noted. "As well, many of the databases that do exist are filled with errors, or aren’t accessible by third-party programs. In these cases, we have to start from scratch, or use data on the same parts acquired from other sources."

Exclusive Ore’s XAAM program costs $75,000 in its basic form, and runs on Oracle, Microsoft, and IBM platforms. Boeing is the first aerospace company to adopt it for widescale use.

 

Air BP Turbine Oil

Like a lot of products, aviation turbine oils are often used and little understood. And, in one instance in particular, the same can be said for the company that manufactures and supplies it. After all, in a figurative sense, one day the shelves were stocked with Exxon-branded turbine oils and the next day those were replaced with Air BP Turbo Oil products (www.airbp.com). "What’s up with that?" technicians were heard to say.

So how did Exxon’s turbine oil become Air BP turbine oil? It started in November 1998, when Exxon announced its intention to purchase Mobil, which had a competing line of aviation turbine oils. The Federal Trade Commission reviewed competing businesses between the two and identified several that needed to be divested in order to protect competition. After careful review by the Federal Trade Commission, it was determined that it would be in the best interest of the industry for Exxon to sell its turbine oil business.

"Air BP felt that with its excellent reputation, the Exxon turbo oil product line would be an excellent fit," explained Nick Cleary, global technical sales and support manager for Air BP Lubricants. "So they made a bid, which was accepted by Exxon." In January 2001, Air BP took over the former Exxon turbine oil line.

The purchase not only included five Exxon turbo oil products but also the manufacturing facility located in Bayway, N.J., which is located south of Newark Liberty International Airport. Along with that, Air BP got the most critical piece of the puzzle; more than 90 percent of the people that directly supported the Exxon turbine oil product line transferred to Air BP. "Exxon turbo oil products have been around since the late 1940s," Cleary said, "and that history and knowledge is critical to Air BP’s efforts and success."

"Inside the cans, the product is exactly the same as it was when it was labeled Exxon," he continued. "The formulations are identical. The base stock is identical. The same manufacturing and quality control processes are used by virtually the same people at the same manufacturing facility."

Cleary went on to explain that even the most experienced technicians are surprised to learn that once an oil’s formulation is locked-in and approved by the various regulatory agencies, it should not be altered outside of normal manufacturing tolerances. A change in formulation should result in requalification of the product. "The formulation for our 2380 product was approved back in 1964," he said. "And it’s basically the same today as it was back then."

He added that the reason for this is the long and expensive process required to get a new oil formulation approved. "Our BPTO 2197 is the most advanced turbine oil on the market today and we began its formulation in 1990," Cleary said. "We received our Mil-PRF-23699 approval from the U.S. Navy in 1994 followed by approvals from the various engine manufacturers, which finally led to our first in-service evaluations in late 1995.

"We received our first full approval in late 1997, which enabled us to finally begin to recoup our large investment in Turbo Oil 2197" he said. "That’s over seven years from the start of the formulation process until we earned our first dollar." No wonder Air BP jumped at the opportunity to purchase an established business instead of starting its own brand from scratch.

And you can rest assured that Air BP’s claim that the products are identical to the Exxon versions isn’t just marketing talk, at least in the eyes of the FAA. The FAA issued a revised special airworthiness information bulletin (SAIB) stating: "The FAA has determined that the Air BP Turbo Oils listed in this SAIB are identical to the corresponding Exxon Turbo Oils (ETOs). The FAA has also determined that the airworthiness approvals for use on aircraft turbine engines and accessories associated with the ETOs are applicable to the corresponding Air BP Oils."

 

Banyan Air Adding Interior Upgrade Services

In an effort to become a one-stop shop for its customers, Banyan Air Services recently opened a new interior shop at its facility at Fort Lauderdale Executive Airport. "There’s a big benefit today if you’re a one-stop shop," explained Walter Rittenhouse, Banyan’s vice president technical services. "Our concept is, while the aircraft is down for major repairs or inspections, we can use that time to spruce up the interior."

Also, to eliminate the learning curve and provide customers with the best quality interior product right from the start, Banyan has partnered with DeCrane Cabin Interiors. "Obviously, they have the expertise, and rather than trying to get into a business we weren’t familiar with, we brought in DeCrane," he added. "That way we’re delivering a top-quality product right from the beginning."

Rittenhouse said that while Banyan can do anything from a simple armrest repair to a complete major interior refurbishment, he feels that the majority of business will come from aircraft that are in for mechanical repairs or inspections. "What the DeCrane people do is when an airplane comes in for maintenance, they do an inspection of the interior, noting any problems," he said. "Then they give the customer a proposal for the work they can do within the allotted time. The goal is to provide services without extending the downtime of the aircraft."

Speaking of time, Rittenhouse also said that Banyan recently extended its hours of operation to provide better service for busy customers. He said the new hours are 7 a.m. to 12:30 a.m., Monday through Friday. On Saturday and Sunday Banyan’s service facility is open form 7 a.m. to 5:30 p.m.

"And when I say open for business, I mean open for business," he stressed. "Our maintenance shop is open. Anything you can do during the week, we can do on Sunday afternoon." To meet the new schedule, he said that Banyan has hired additional technicians and support staff, but the investment has been well worth it. "It’s gotten great response from all of the operators. They think it’s a super idea."

 

The Fundamentals of Fundamental Attribution Error

We’ve all seen or heard it–"my manager doesn’t understand what it’s like to be in my job," or "none of the technicians that work for me are motivated to do anything." It seems that everywhere you go these days, aviation maintenance technicians are dissatisfied with their working conditions and managers are dissatisfied with the performance of their AMTs. AMTs blame managers and managers blame AMTs, but who is really at fault?

Actually, this is a perfect example of a psychological principle called fundamental attribution error. According to Dr. Phillip Zimbardo, professor of psychology at Stanford University, fundamental attribution error is, simply stated, blaming a person (or persons) for something that is actually caused by a less-than-perfect situation. I think everyone can agree that the world of aviation maintenance today is definitely less than perfect. Because nobody can forecast if aviation will ever return to its glory days, these situations are becoming more the norm than the exception, and the issues they raise are being attributed to AMTs and their managers.

A lot of psychobabble, you say? Well, think about it this way: you are driving home from work after a particularly easy day. The sun is shining and the weather is beautiful. In a word, life is good. Then someone pulls out in front of you and makes you slam on the brakes. What is the first thing you think? The person who pulled out in front of you is a jerk, right? They must not know how to drive. But, perhaps you didn’t see the animal that caused them to swerve; maybe you were in the other driver’s blind spot. Regardless, you tend to blame the person (in this case, that jerk behind the wheel of the other car) and not the situation. Believe it or not, the same thing happens at work.

What can you do about it? First, be aware these errors take place. The next time you find yourself blaming someone for a situation, ask yourself if that individual really had control over it. Is it possible that the parts didn’t arrive because there was a delay in manufacturing? If so, it’s probably not any particular person’s fault, so why blame someone you work with? If someone is blaming you, take the time to explain the situation. Hand them a copy of this article and tell them you couldn’t control the situation–then offer to help them devise an alternative plan to accomplish your mission. Finally, have an open mind about these errors. Everyone commits them, usually on a regular basis. However, knowledge is a powerful tool; use it to overcome these situations and turn a bad scenario into a good one.

Does this mean that there aren’t any AMTs out there that lack motivation? How about managers that don’t understand what it’s like to be "under the wing?" Not on your life, but there aren’t nearly as many of them out there as we would sometimes like to believe.

 

Part 145: Ready or Not, Here It Comes

On September 23, the FAA delayed the effective date for the new Part 145 regulations until January 31, 2004. The delay was to give repair stations sufficient time to revise their manuals based upon Advisory Circular 145-9: Guide for Developing and Evaluating Repair Station and Quality Control Manuals. The AC follows the norm for federal communications, with the explanation considerably longer than the original rule while still leaving questions about implementation unanswered.

A forum on the new Part 145 transition period was held at the Aircraft Electronics Association (AEA) regional meeting October 23 to 25 in Kansas City, Missouri. Moderated by Ric Peri, AEA vice president of government and industry affairs, the forum attendants represented several repair stations and the FAA.

Participants’ primary questions regarded the manual requirements for the new Part 145. Half of the repair station representatives stated that they had started work on the new manuals, but few had completed them. Most were concerned about specifically what the "Capability List" (�145.215), the "Functions List and Contract Maintenance (�145.217), and the "Vendor List" are to embody.

"The best way to approach the functions list," Peri explained, "is to drive it to the highest level possible. Ideally, it should be kept to a single page." Using the broadest possible language at the beginning helps achieve brevity. The following two statements were suggested as openers for the functions list:

  1. Any functions the repair station is not rated to work on will be outsourced.
  2. Items covered under warranty will be sent to the OEM.

These two statements appear simple, and that is the idea behind them. They capture a broad range of maintenance and repair functions in broad statements without having to deluge the functions list with details.

From that point, the functions list can state repair station functions performed, starting with the highest-level functions and working down only as far into the details as necessary. For example, it may be stated that the repair station will perform functions under its Class 1 and Class 2 Radio rating, but will only remove and install radar equipment, with the remaining functions for its Class 3 Radio rating outsourced. The necessary details are included and pages of infinite function descriptions are avoided by listing the highest level functions first.

When it comes to "approved" versus "accepted," you should continue to create these two lists with the following in mind:

The functions list is a static document, relatively, which is approved. It is created once and only changes if there is a change in the repair station’s ratings or capabilities.

The vendor list is a dynamic document, relatively, which is accepted.

Peri emphasized that the vendor list is not included in the manual. The list is only maintained and made available to the FAA district office in an acceptable format (see �145.217 (a)(2)). This could be stated in the manual as a vendor list being maintained and available in a file cabinet in shipping and receiving, for example. This list can change with the requirements of the repair station.

Assembling a vendor list should be painless, as most repair stations already have the data on hand. Recent invoices for outsourced work or the ledger for the checking account that paid for it will show which vendors to include. Additional information from vendors’ capabilities lists or vendor site audits (most likely already in a file) will complete the list quickly.

Finally, a question was raised on what constitutes contract maintenance. Peri stated that contract maintenance is "when a repair station sends a unique article out, expecting to get that unique article back." Sending out a component with the understanding that a similar unit (but not the original unique article) comes back would be considered "contract for exchange" and not contract maintenance.

Forum participants all agreed that the purpose of the new Part 145 is to foster better working relationships between the repair station industry and the FAA inspectors who have been given oversight responsibility. Keeping the new manuals at the highest level practical without weighing them down with minute details is a step toward making the transition process more streamlined for all parties involved.

Both the Aircraft Electronics Association and the Aeronautical Repair Station Association are offering assistance for Part 145 transition. See www.aea.net and www.arsa.org.

 

SMART Boards Make Learning Compelling

New York City’s Aviation High School, which trains teenagers to become FAA-certificated aircraft mechanics, has installed 22 SMART Board interactive whiteboards in its Long Island City classrooms. Made by SMART Technologies (www.smarttech.com), the SMART Board combines the interactivity of a conventional white board with the features of a touchscreen computer monitor. Teachers can display feeds from their computers directly to the large SMART Board–including video, web pages, and aircraft controls–and control it by touch. They can also write on the board using special electronic markers and save everything they produce onto a PC hard drive. Once there, the notes can be accessed by Aviation High School students either from the school’s own PCs, or via the web.

"Today’s teenagers are highly visual learners," said Mario Cotumaccio, Aviation High School’s assistant principal. "To keep their attention, we needed something more than textbooks and flat diagrams. The SMART Board is an extremely interactive tool and one that allows us to access the Web in real time during classes. This helps us keep our students involved and interacting with our teachers."

Typical applications run on the Aviation High School SMART Boards include interactive demonstrations of aircraft controls, maintenance procedures, and case studies of aircraft accidents. "One example we examine is the loss of TWA Flight 800, which disintegrated in mid-air after an explosion in its fuel tank," Cotumaccio said. "We tie into the Internet to access data about what was happening aboard the aircraft when the explosion took place, at a level of detail that isn’t possible using textbooks."

Since installing the SMART Boards a few years ago, Aviation High School has seen its students’ achievement levels rise. "We have seen a 3 to 4 percent increase in the number of our students achieving FAA airframe and powerplant certification," said Aviation High School principal Eileen Taylor. "As well, about 80 percent of our students continue onto university and college for additional training after leaving the Aviation High School. With the help of SMART Boards, we are training the kind of intelligent, qualified technicians the aviation industry needs."

 

Swissport: MRO For Homeless Airlines

It is a classic airline conundrum: you fly to dozens of cities, but only have MRO facilities in a few key airports. Yet your aircraft could require maintenance wherever they land, so what can you do?

One answer is to outsource such maintenance to third-party MROs such as Swissport. Known as "Swissair Ground Services" until 1996, Swissport offers a range of aircraft maintenance and related services at airports worldwide. "In fact, we offer total ground service," said Hasnain Ansari, Swissport USA’s vice president of aircraft maintenance. Specifically, Swissport’s portfolio includes line maintenance, aircraft inspection, and repair services. The company also offers aircraft ground de-icing, cargo and luggage handling, and ticketing support.

According to Ansari, Swissport is the "largest ground handling company" in the world. So what do the numbers say? Well, in 2002, Swissport provided ramp handling for 1.6 million aircraft for more than 550 airlines and Swissport operates at more than 130 airports in 23 countries. The company is majority owned by the British private equity firm Candover.

In the United States, Swissport USA has aircraft maintenance facilities located at 10 airports ranging from Anchorage, Alaska to Honolulu, Hawaii, plus Seattle, San Francisco, Dulles, and JFK in New York. Nationwide, Swissport USA serves 59 airline customers and handles 47,580 flights a year.

In addition to tackling unscheduled maintenance problems, Swissport conducts the regular round of checks, inspections, and scheduled maintenance required to keep its clients’ aircraft airworthy. "For airlines who only fly into a given airport a few times a week, this is important," Ansari said. "They can’t afford to maintain a dedicated MRO facility at this kind of location, yet they must have this level of support available when they need it. That’s where we come in."

Mindful of the variety of aircraft in service, Swissport’s MRO shops service narrow- and wide-body airframes. As for the cost? "Our charges are either flat-rate or charged on an hourly basis," said Ansari. "The actual prices vary depending on how much volume we get from a customer–how many aircraft in a given time period–and what services they require."

Clearly, Swissport is a useful alternative for smaller airlines. Swissport USA’s network includes three FAA-approved repair stations, and the company has won the FAA AMT Diamond Award for the past two years. However, larger carriers such as British Airways, Japan Airlines, and United Airlines are also Swissport customers.

For instance, Swissport USA just won a cargo tender from United, through which Swissport will staff United’s cargo handling services at 17 of its warehouses. "This change is part of our restructuring process aimed at creating a vital new United," said UnitedCargo vice president Roger Gibson, "an enterprise that is customer-focused, competitive, and resilient." Under the deal, about 70 percent of United’s cargo will be handled by Swissport employees.

One thing is certain: Swissport’s provision of MRO services at outlying airports is good news for this former Swissair division, and for the airlines it serves.

 

Log on to JSfirm

The exception to the perception that there aren’t many jobs in aviation maintenance would be the success JSfirm has had in helping technicians find good jobs in today’s less than upbeat market. Want proof? Better yet, want a new job?

"We average 450 fresh help-wanted ads per month on our website," explained JSfirm co-owner and manager, Joel Meanor. "Right now we have nearly 1,500 aviation companies using our services, and they’re all over. I remember one month when we had jobs available in every state in the U.S., every province of Canada, and most of Mexico."

Meanor also said that JSfirm has more than 15,000 candidates’ resumes available for companies to search.

What’s the secret to their success? JSfirm is not your typical web-based job site. JSfirm is a proactive aviation job board and recruiting service and unlike a static job board, the company offers employers and candidates a number of ways to maximize the employment search process. And theservices are all free to job candidates.

For example, candidates can post their resume for employers to search, but also use that posting to manage their career. "We call it Candidate Career Management," Meanor said. "When you post your resume with us you get your own private web page and URL that you can paste in e-mails or put in letters so people can go straight to your information."

Meanor added that with the career management tool, candidates can change their resume to reflect new job skills, promotions, or whatever, so it’s always current and fully up to date.

JSfirm also has tools that clients can use to manage and sometimes protect their current job, such as making a posted resume confidential or inactive. We’ve all heard horror stories of people responding to job listings from their own company. By making the resume confidential, the applicant’s skills are still searchable, but the name and contact information are blind to the searching company. If someone is interested, they can contact JSfirm, which will forward the inquiry directly to the candidate, who chooses whether or not to respond.

When a resume is inactive, it’s just that. It’s still in the JSfirm database but it’s not searchable by anyone. The inactive function is there for when you are happy with your current position and aren’t interested in the temptation from all those job offers you will receive. But when your boss gets on your nerves, it just takes a few minutes to turn an inactive resume into an active resume.

JSfirm also offers a variety of recruitment services to companies that just don’t want to be bothered with the hassles of searching through endless stacks of resumes looking or Mr. or Ms. Right. "About 50 percent of our business right now is in recruitment," Meanor said. "My partner Sam Scanlon and I both have aviation backgrounds–we are both A&P mechanics that worked ourselves up to mid-management. It really helps when you know what you are talking about."

According to Meanor the most active areas today are in the general aviation/corporate arena. "These jobs are available all over the country," he said. "We see lots of technical jobs: mechanics and avionics. And there are lots of skilled jobs like paint, interior fabrication, upholsterers, and woodworkers."

The pay is just as good today as it was pre-9/11, Meanor said. "In my opinion, companies are willing to pay good money for the skills they need. If a job is worth X-dollars an hour, no one is going to offer, or accept half of that. A good job will earn you a good living."

JSfirm: www.jsfirm.com


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