Honeywell Sees Bright Business Aviation Future

Honeywell's annual forecast predicts deliveries of about 9,900 new business jets from 2005 through 2015 worth $156 billion. Honeywell released the results of its 19th business aviation forecast (the 14th publicly released Business Aviation Outlook) on November 7, just before the opening of the NBAA Convention on October 9. Those numbers don't include the new very light jet category or large corporate jetliners like the Boeing Business Jet or Airbus ACJ. "The outlook is very bright for our industry," said Rob Wilson, president of Honeywell's business and general aviation division. "Many more new products are in the pipeline."

Surprisingly, fuel prices aren't a deterrent to aircraft sales, according to Wilson. If the growth of the U.S. gross domestic product remains at or above 3.3 percent, sales shouldn't suffer with high fuel prices, he said. In responding to the Honeywell surveys that were used to generate the forecast, respondents indicated that they may fly fewer hours as fuel prices rise, but will continue with plans to buy aircraft.

Aircraft deliveries are up 35 percent year-to-date compared to 2004. During 2005, Honeywell expects total deliveries of business jets to reach 745, up from 589 last year. In 2006, deliveries should exceed 800, which will be a record.

This year is the first time that Honeywell researchers have asked respondents about purchasing plans for what Honeywell labels "ultralight jets." These are jets with gross weights of less than 7,500 pounds and costing less than $2.2 million dollars, such as the Eclipse 500. Not including air taxi operators and fractional operators, Honeywell sees a potential for sales of 4,500 to 5,500 ultralight jets during the coming 10 years. About 800 to 900 of those will be operated by traditional corporate flight departments with the remainder going to individual owners.

"One possible roadblock to the rosy outlook," Wilson explained, "is the ability of the entire supply chain to respond, especially raw materials." Castings and forgings, especially for turbine engines, require lengthy lead times and could cause some supply problems.

Fractional-share operators continue to be a large factor in future purchasing plans, although their rate of growth has slowed. They will, nevertheless, account for 12 to 15 percent of jet sales.