20-Year Rolls-Royce Forecast Sees 48,000 Engines

Rolls-Royce released its business aviation forecast at the NBAA Convention November 9, predicting deliveries of 23,000 new jets during the next 20 years. Those jets will be powered by 48,000 engines valued at $61 billion.

From 2005 through 2014, Rolls-Royce expects unit deliveries of business jets to grow by 32 percent, dropping to 9 percent during the period from 2015 to 2024. Rolls-Royce included very light jets in its forecast, and 7,500 VLJ deliveries are expected in the next 20 years. Despite that number, Rolls-Royce does not consider the under-3,000 pound thrust engine market to be worth pursuing for the near future. "It doesn't make business sense now," said Michael Miller, director market planning and analysis.

Emerging markets in Russia, China, and India will play a significant role in future business jet delivers, Miller noted, with 500 to 700 jet deliveries in those countries during the next decade. "Over time, we think these markets will develop quite well," he said. "The rest of the world will [eventually] average 25 percent of deliveries." Miller said this depends on key drivers of economic activity, infrastructure growth, and market liberalization.